12:44 - 1m minis today -Looks familiar. All the action in the morning and then a range bound mess.
10:38 - From the top - Range bound minis. Lord help the shorts if this is an inverse HnS. Possible A (green) B (blue) C back to 27 corrective. Possible 1 of 3 ending here and it needs a corrective to set a bigger more impulsing drive from a third wave to crack that support level. Backtested the green diagonal at 40 support. Slight divergence on the 4hr MACD. Bottom line is that if 40 goes so does the market, but if it can hols a run back to the top of the range can not be ruled out. the fibs for this fall from the 27 top are 71, 82 and 92.
Sorry for the confusion, but as I analyze the data (and throw in the PPT and GDP issues) you have to be looking in both directions here.
30m SPX - Backtesting the HnS neckline or is it the falling wedge throwing under? Really tough call as the 30 and 60 say climb, the daily and weekly say drop and the Fed and Treasury will just friggin move it wherever the hell they want and the jobs and GDP data still to come. The way I want to count it is that the low today ended 1 of 3 and we're in a corrective that may go thru tomorrow and the big fall happens Friday or Monday.
I'm still a big believer it is going to take a LEH type incident to really kick start the fall (nope the fall is not going good just yet). We need true capitulation that we never got in P1. This will happen in 3 of 3 for sure. I have speculated on two market closures in this primary wave 3. So, will GDP be enough Friday to really get this puppy moving? Possibly. Something has to kick off a third of a third. My thoughts on the jobs number is that they are becoming less relevant (and are always revised so the data can be fudged to get what they want).
So, with so many possible calls, I'm pulling this out of the hat - regardless of the jobs number it goes up tomorrow some and possibly collapses into the close. Friday GDP kicks off the impulse we have all been looking for and over the weekend something happens that really throws it under the bus. This move does not stop till the weeklys give a buy signal. 975 is a good number (not a target - I'm struggling with setting that). None of this is set in stone and we always have to adapt to whatever they are throwing at us. There are obviously two scenarios and I could sell you either. I prefer to let the opportunities show their hand and then pounce. As usual, we always warn against unsuspected upside in this rigged market.
