Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Looking at the financials - Increasingly interested in the Wikileaks possible release and if it even makes it past go. Protecting the financials may prove to be more important than the military and government secrets.

UNG 4hr - still looks weak. Maybe it makes it's way to channel support near 5.60. If the daily MACD bear crosses it could get worse (S Sto already crossed). 

Except for the 24th it has been fall and base, fall and base. Only yesterday did it get a continuation and Friday was the only day here that did not get a ramp to regain losses. Right now we're still dealing with a market setting lower highs, but the lower lows have apparently (for now) stopped. Bears need for 73 to get taken out. If price should take out the 90 high from yesterday I would be concerned as a bear. Get really concerned if the 99 high is taken out. Till then they still have the ball. 

What could help a rally here? The dollar topping out of course. Here it is possibly at the top if the channel range. Does the dollar need to backtest the busted diagonal? Is it too expended too fast? Something to ponder.

SPX 2h working chart - Lower BB support keeping things up for now.  Concerning the bears should be the whipsaw in many time frames this AM. SPX apparently was really wanting to turn yesterday.

/YG possible HnS. Gray diagonal is LT resistance.Two green are LT wedge boundary lines.

China markets screwing with the system, the euro finally under 130 and a big data morning with Case-Shiller at 9:00, Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer confidence at 10:00. Auto sales tomorrow with APD, ISM, construction and petrol.

EUR/USD getting hammered and thru support. We have been looking at this turn for some time and it finally appears the markets are going to react to the contagion. Next stop 26.

AUD/JPY correlation has lost some of it's magic, but it may kick back in here as this pair has met resistance as well.

SPX daily - 50dma at 77 and the lower BB at 70 are key support levels here.

Index comparison - I don't expect the financials to play catch up this time. On shorter time frames the indexes while correlated in movements are very dispersed which is somewhat unusual.

Minis were as high as 1188 last night and as low as 73 this morning. That is another big drop just like yesterday. Plenty of POMO to go around and the power of POMO was seen to be alive and well yesterday. Key SPX level is 73.
 
More to come after the open.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Remember that QLD catchup play I discussed earlier. Hit the donate button if you took that and ran with it. All bunched up now on the 1m but not the 30m. 

Those interested in the possible HnS set-up on SPX need to see this. Pink lines are measured fall. red dashed diagonal is another possible neckline that has developed. The other indexes are not playing that game right now. Other interesting points are RUT and TRAN are still just above the 200ma. INDU is only index to set lower low. Not much consistency across indexes except all are falling.

Most disturbing is this dislocation of indexes. this is rare. Sometimes one will breal out (Financials or RUT), but this disparity is astounding. bottom line is they all will come back together. Question is on what side of the chart? TRAN and RUT bucking the trend here for sure.

Minis all over the place since they opened last night. Fell right to the support diagonal this AM If the minis get under 78 there could be trouble. Gobs of POMO this week. Markets here not respecting the reality that is the EU. Hell, the EU is not respecting their own reality. It all spirals out of control sooner than later now. The fuse that was lit years ago is finally nearing it's objective. Desperation moves are beginning to show up. Only a matter of time before the first national default.

Daily 50ma at 76 and lower BB at 70 would be main support targets here. Below that are the two 38% retracements at 55 and 44, the 200dma at 32, then the 30 support level. RSI 5 and 14 struggling with 50 levels but from different directions.

I don't know of anything that should raise the markets significantly at this time other than POMO, and apparently those funds have been diverted to other needy areas.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Rich on the FAZ train - Financials should get crushed. I have no idea what is holding these markets up. EU is in dismal state. Must be disbelief of what is really happening all around us.

Comparison charts below. Dig that 30m chart in the middle. That is very unusual action to have them so spread out like that.

Look out incarnate - 

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.I put a few charts in a post last night. I knew they were ready to fall. I'll be here today till lunch.


Minis possibly channeling. Getting tired.

Here is what they look like this morning. I was quite surprised/pleased to find this. If the pink channel is right, price may settle in after the open. This is possibly the start of the C leg down of 4 or worse.

SPX left two island gaps.

SPX 30m looks ready.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

I'll be out most of the day, but will be checking in with updates when I can.

My 80 year old wheel chair bound great aunt flew in from Houston for the holiday. She was groped by the TSA.

Financials getting crushed. Most likely the beginning of the end has arrived for them.

Minis - backtesting and riding support diagonal off the highs (where cash is being limited by this diagonal.

No POMO today or Friday. Everything appears to be spiraling out of control. No telling what this final pre-holiday Wednesday will have in store for the markets. Minis up, but don't deserve to be. SPX had a pretty triangle that should have lead to a down open, so maybe an overthrow then fall? Maybe they just ramp it cause they can? I'm thinking in spite of the bullish minis this AM we still have some sort of down to flat day.

Everyone have a great holiday. Enjoy family and friends. Be careful traveling. We all have many gifts and we have lots of things to be thankful for. Let's take this weekend to identify those and rebuild our selves to be better going forward. Have a good one and GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

SPX 1m - Not much different than below. Island gap is green. Other gaps are brown. Fib is there. Blue diagonal resistance is obvious. 

SPX 1m - under the blue diagonal. Will be watching this line and the black one closely along with the remaining sliver of gap below. Fibs are there.  

SPX 30m - fell to a triple support point. Like almost on the number.

I could say something nasty about the N & S Korea conflict, but I won't.

Dollar is thru upper resistance.

Minis off 14 bouncing off lows. The previous low was 82.5. The low today was 82.5.

Very possible HnS on the minis with the neckline being the old upper resistance diagonal off the 1225 highs that price keeps backtesting as trend brings price lower. Pretty good one worth 22 points if is sets off. Neckline is aroind 77 right now.

Gonna have to wait and see how cash reacts to all of this. Might create a very nice buying opportunity for ST traders when the "dust" settles.Yesterday I gave a bull and bear count. Both of those are still alive. The surprise turn last night made the run late yesterday a great head fake and has put the bear count front and center.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

POMO today and tomorrow then none Wed and Fri. IRE may be failing. I can't tell, nor can anyone else, but the markets are not happy. After spiking to over +7 the minis now sit -4. Interesting to say the least.

The charts sure saw it coming. The divergences on the 30m, although not completely set, are there thanks to that late pop Friday. Minis back at 92 support. Not sure what volume will have in store for us today, but being a holiday week I would expect the bots to have more dominance than normal.

Things look pretty sick right now. Minis at or near a support diagonal. If that goes then what I am seeing as a B wave may be completed. I have some issues with that during a holiday week, but the set up looks good. the other possibility is that we're in a 2 of some sort with a breakout to come next week.

HOLIDAY WEEK! WoooHoooo! Shanky will be there today and tomorrow. Wednesday I will be here in the AM and Friday for part of the day. I expect to at least have a post each day at a minimum. Time to get happy and enjoy the season. Please remember the "reason for the season" as we roll thru it.

GL!

Weekend Post

Keep it civil while you have at it.

Have a great weekend.

Shanky

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis HnS after resistance diagonal busted and backtest.

Opex Friday. Roubini on CNBS this AM. Hope to get some printable quotes or clips. He's lost his edge IMO and I prefer the volatile Faber these days.

Dollar as expected is consolidating under resistance and above support on the ever narrowing 79 to 78.50 range. Something will have to give here soon. I would expect it to fall to 77 here and for upper resistance to hold. Dailys slightly overbought. It can break out and if it should 80.11 would be the first target.

Bringing the VWAP and bands back into play. Minis trading at lower VWAP band 1190. VWAP is 95 and upper band is 1200. They are expanding at this point and for the most part mirror a very narrow 60m BB set up indicating possible volatility to come.

Minis down almost 6 and my favorite chart is this SPX 30m. Reversal off the 200ma combined with some other factors make for a nice chance at some sort of meaningful turn here. The problem with calling for a smaller retrace is that it would end somewhere in the middle of the ramp yesterday near 87 when the trend is for price to retake the whole ramp. Once 96 support goes at the open it could be game on. this will be a tough game to call if it stops. Looking for the blue triangle/wedge.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

DOW 10m - rolling over at diagonal resistance? 

SPX 30m - Chart does not look healthy. Not totally sick, just not healthy esp when combined with the 5 and 15m charts, but we've seen these abused recently before.Let's see if that 30m 200ma can be enough resistance to reverse this puppy.

Morning Doji Star -
From Stockcharts.com
The morning star consists of three candlesticks:

1. A long black candlestick.
2. A small white or black candlestick that gaps below the close of the previous candlestick. This candlestick can also be a doji, in which case the pattern would be a morning doji star.
3. A long white candlestick.

The black candlestick confirms that the decline remains in force and selling dominates. When the second candlestick gaps down, it provides further evidence of selling pressure. However, the decline ceases or slows significantly after the gap and a small candlestick forms. The small candlestick indicates indecision and a possible reversal of trend. If the small candlestick is a doji, the chances of a reversal increase. The third long white candlestick provides bullish confirmation of the reversal.

and your current daily setup - The only thing missing is the gap below. Got the gap on the right.

Or a Bullish Abandoned Baby -

The bullish abandoned baby resembles the morning doji star and also consists of three candlesticks:

1. A long black candlestick.
2. A doji that gaps below the low of the previous candlestick.
3. A long white candlestick that gaps above the high of the doji.

The main difference between the morning doji star and the bullish abandoned baby are the gaps on either side of the doji. The first gap down signals that selling pressure remains strong. However, selling pressure eases and the security closes at or near the open, creating a doji. Following the doji, the gap up and long white candlestick indicate strong buying pressure and the reversal is complete. Further bullish confirmation is not required.

Again missing the gap on the left but got it on the right.

Minis 60m - Pretty overbought, but that does not mean this can't continue as Cash is still driving up the hill. Who wins the tug-o-war? 

EUR/USD - 

 AUD/JPY -

 /DX - Dollar -

SPX 1m -  Just under 61% retracement and the upper resistance diagonal. I would expect it to curn to that pont and then we'll have to make a big boy decision. Since this looks like a possible 3rd to me then more upside should be expected. That is not guaranteed. The measurement for the ABC I was looking at yesterday took us to 92, so this may be it around here. Those are the two options. Time will tell. Still a lot of issues hanging over the market esp with bonds.

Pop time. We've been looking for it and our line of thinking was pretty much spot on this week looking for the market rise into the GM announcement. IRE issues being put to bed (for now) are helping the cause. Minis stopped so far at ... wait .. wait .. here it comes ... 91.87 resistance. Close enough for my 92 target.

Now comes the big question. Is this enough to have ended the big 4 corrective and to light the POMO fuse for more strength, or is there still more downside to come. With the position of the 60m indicators and the diagonal resistance lines that will break this morning that we have been pointing to maybe a bigger pop is in store. The bond markets and commods are not going away. Dollar is coming off the resistance we have been pointing to for a couple of weeks and has fallen to a support level. What happens here is anyone's guess. Tight range between support and resistance.

Minis - At the upper diagonal resistance for this fall. Can it crack or do we go down for 5?

Dollar - Has resistance become support? The green diagonal is LT resistance and if that cracks the dollar will have broken out.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

/NG - a la Denninger's triple whammy increasing TL theory. Time to exit. Let's see what inventory report says at 10:30 tomorrow. Maybe something leaked. Maybe they cut production by another 50% (from the already reduced 50%) to get prices right. Pretty soon the most abundant energy resource will have a false shortage and create a buying panic. LOL. No corporate demand now and none coming. 3 of last 4 years if you bought /NG on 09/01 you won nicely. This year is lagging that trend horrifically.

SPX 60m - Watch for the black TL to crack on RSI14 or any other indicators to indicate trend change. Not sure if it will be large or small move. One more lower low would set up a really fine buying opp.

Hmmmm v2 - Dig that breakdown/PPT immediate support job. Dollar fell hard at that point as well. Possible B wave or it is rolling over. The longer it consolidates here the weaker the indicators get. 

Hmmmm

SPX Update - double fib confluence, gap resistance and price resistance at 94.Backtesting the channel support diagonal here. Might pull off for a B then up for a C before further weakness. Note that any move above the 96 area and the bear run may be dead.

From the close the futures had a steady climb to 80 and then about 1am they had an abrupt fall to 73. they then showed some real resilience and climbed to 81, fell back to 75 and here we are now at 78 up 3. That must have been an interesting night.

What is the market going to do today? Do we have ANOTHER red POMO day? Well, I am a bit clueless right now. Dailys diving down, yet, oversold, 6o bottoming and 3o and 15m pushing up. Will they further embed or do they allow a corrective? Pretty much nailed my 77 target but did not get there the way I thought we would. We're missing a bigger corrective off 83. So I am in a position where I have to follow the markets lead today. Up to the double fib confluence or upper diagonal near 94 OR it slides down the lower diagonal to one of several stopping points. I have had a third and final target of the 50dma and Lower BB conjunction near 63 as a fail safe if 77 went awry. The you have the two 38% fibs at 55 and 44 then the 200dma and support at 30. I do think there is more near term downside to come, but that is not guaranteed.

SPX 15m - The cleanest chart I got.Black diagonal was wedge support off 1040. Looks oversold with some slight buy divergences to me. I assume that support diagonal is the one. I cant see anything else to draw. The channel is gone. One thing to note is that if that support diagonal stays in play, the slope vs any rise in price will require another dramatic fall to hit it again. Just something to think about.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Is the dollar about maxed out?

AUD/JPY maxed out?

Morning. Falling away. Thanks Ireland!

Folks, bottom line is that things have been miserable and on life support for well over a year now. the period of extend and pretend s coming to an end. Figuring this mess out now is becoming increasingly difficult. I'm still in the POMO to raise all boats one last time camp and that the markets will be headed up into Xmas.

Near term we're on a good count. My 15m chart and the call from Friday where I gave the measurements of the moves is working pretty well right now. So it looks like fall to 87 then up to near 97 then down to 77. The hard part is all that has to happen before Thursday because I am speculating that the markets will need to be "happy" going into Thursday's GM IPO. 

GL!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s158843170]&disp=P