September 30, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

3:45 - SPX 1m Hard to read with all the lines. Just see the red channel and possible topping diagonal. If it makes it out to the green diagonal you can see the channel down it may be forming. Possible crack there.

11:37 - See the red diagonal that has it now. Possible backtest of wedge coming. Up for 4 or 2 of 3 to close that1m island gap at 45 and make 38% off the top.

10:02 - SPX 15m - 
And this is what the third best month in history looks like


Minis daily - like a busted record as we wait for the wedge to end. Yes, it is extended overbought. What may be the HUGE tell is that the VWAP is now below wedge support. This run should be over. Of course they could turn it into a channel and ramp it to infinity. You can never discount that.

Minis 60m - flat/spike rinse/repeat. Some serious resistance there at 58 to 60. Note the price is above the sky blue VWAP band. This more than not leads to some sort of sell off if you look at the chart closely.

SPX 60m  - Possibly one move up left to 58/62 range or it just falls apart. What is strange is this is all to obvious. I remember just like yesterday we got a bad GDP and employment print and Bernenke simply promised the moon and look where we are today! Everything is all better, right? Well, guess who speaks at 10:30 today? Oh hallelujah!

September 29, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Dollar and SPX short term chart. 
Didn't the EWT counts have the dollar as beginning a 3 up? Looks like a HnS breakdown to me in the race to devalue we may be trailing only Zimbabwe and Argentina (the two countries we will most likely emulate in a few years). I think it gets a 6 handle and eventually (just before implosion and being replaced by the Yuan as the global standard) gets a 4 handle.

SPX 4 open island gaps - simply amazing stuff. Black rectangles.

1:15 - VIX LOL chart -  Yes, it is still green as is the market.

RUT 4 hr - this does not look good. 

10:30 - Possible wedge down here if the lower diagonal is right. 

DOW LT Chart - Dow has crossed the upper (pink) resistance line.This is either bullish or a sign a top is near.

10:00 - The wedge -  Price is no doubt consolidating and the bears almost every day seem to be growing stronger. I'll refer to that blue diagonal wedge support if we get there.

9:45 -  SPX 1m this morning. Tiny island gap just above 49. Might be forming an ascending triangle.

Minis since the close - 

Chart I had on the big blog this AM. 

SPX - It is all coming together TECHNICALLY. Red is the upper bear market diagonal off the top in '07 over the top in April. The blue line is the diagonal off the lows in October '09 that has marked the lows and highs since. The 1150 resistance from the major top in January. Throw in the current wedge and the overbought daily conditions plus the C=A at 1158.75 off the 1010 low and you have a nasty brew for a top. The battle with EOQ, POMO, QEII, election season, manipulation and all the other levitation voodoo crap they are throwing at the markets will make this call interesting. I'm still in the "need a catalyst" camp, so this one may extend. Who the hell knows these days? One thing is for sure, it is gonna take something supernatural to bust all these technical signals (sadly they have this capability).


Minis same 1yr chart.

September 28, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Just a brutal turnaround from the 42 level.  Shorted the break that looked so promising then they came in and slammed the door.1150.00 what a joke.

2:50 - 30m SPX bearish engulfing candle with confirmation thru 42 support. Add the potential bearis whipsaw to the MACD. Now can the bears show up and fight off POMO?

1:37 - SPX wedge.  That tiny red sliver in the upper right corner is the new bear market upper resistance line.

12:54 - Lunch almost over and a nice potential HnS to greet you when you get back. could it get any better?  39 target. Of course it could just bust up to 1310 resistance to get even with gold.

9:58 - SPX 1m with gaps and fib - very orderly so far with no really big candles. Just steady and not impulsive. They are controlling descent very nicely (so far). 

Minis were as low as 1131 last night. They rallied over 11 points all on heavy volume. Whomever took the market down late yesterday knew something was up

Minis 1m - Note the blown out lower VWAP (blue) band to 32 support. That was a big move that got a stick save.

Minis 60m - Price has fallen into the 40 to 30 range.


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September 27, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Further proof -See the red BB's - That is called the lips pattern and it is saying "kiss my ass!"

I told ya the VIX was worthless. That is amazing and amazingly not normal. 

Today's SPX channel. See the Island gap above near 47.Note the strange drop, pop, drop just after 1:00.


SPX 1m channel - 

Minis we're up 5 at one point. They are falling slowly at midnight.

Daily long term. Overbought and with some divergences.
60m - Backtest of the wedge completed and some serious resistance above especially that light gray diagonal which is the new bear market resistance line (which the DOW had busted) . Indicators here overbought.
AUD/JPY - Long tern, daily overbought and wedging.
Gold - draw your own conclusions from this chart. My target has been 1310 for a long time.

September 24, 2010

Weekend Post

Leave comments and links - As I update the chartbook I'll post anything interesting I find. Have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

11:55 - Can you find the 1m candles in this minis chart since 10:00? 

DOA baby - BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP

10:53 - Minis 4hr chart - OK, so if that wedge was not it and we must extend the formation (assuming the wedge is right - which it is)  we then drop lower wedge support diagonal (for the nth time since we cant seem to find where it belongs) - see dashed pink - the low yesterday would be a D touch of the A-E wedge. Now, see that heavy pink dashed diagonal above? That is the Oct '09 S/R diagonal. I like the way this plays out as upside should be a struggle and downside is obviously even more of one.Just a possibility to keep in mind.




10:34 - SPX 30m that black dashed diagonal is off the '09 October lows.
 Here is the larger view again. It can spike thru this diagonal. It has dominated tops and bottoms of ranges for a year now.The heavy red diagonal is the new bear market resistance line off the top in '07. That is the max and where those two lines intersect may be our ultimate destination.

9:35 - Busted channel, spike to 38 resistance and 62% retracemet. 

Minis up 5 Possibly taking out the upper resistance line. 30m chart here is still climbing. SPX 30m should be bottoming. VWAP and 30m 200ma both reside at 30.5 and the 32.5 resistance line is just above that. 42 is the upper VWAP band. Right now with this being a POMO day I'm looking up. Bears have been great recently. Maybe 27 points in just under 3 days was a bit much. A backtest of the wedge is still a possibility.

September 23, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

The new "under the roof" pattern - yes, I have lost it. 

4:10 - Minis HnS

3:20 - SPX channel down? Hard to believe it could be true, but it looks good so far.

1:24 - How about a massive HnS on the minis? 

12:17 - SPX 10m - possible HnS after the fall. Neckline at 36. The lower red dashed line was expected support I mentioned at 28 and the upper dashed black line is the mega diagonal going back to Oct '09. A RS down to 31.5 would be interesting. This is only a possibility. As  a corrective this looks a bit extended which concerns me. 

Nasty. 60m minis. Fell right to 17. That was quick. Weren't we just at 44 ? 60m chart that has busted the wedge, channel, 200ma, lower VWAP band and lower BB. I mentioned yesterday that the bulls had built a ton of support, well the bears have busted thru the front lines. That is one serious move. Yesterday I wanted a move to SPX 1116 200dma. and then reassess. This should be a tough nut to crack. If it should go this could get really interesting.