September 14, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

10:43 - Gold and Silver chart - Just a big long term chart. Two things - 1) the divergences in the indicators and overbought conditions for gold are unmistakable and 2)I have been calling for Silver to pass gold to indicate a (A not THE) top. I have foretasted gold to go to the 1310 are as the top before a major fall, so this is not it but something confirming what I have been saying thus far. The poor (or less fortunate or experienced - the people that chase bubbles) come piling in at the top (See 2008 bubble top to double top now) and can't buy the shiny yellow stuff, so they load up on silver. This, to me, is a sign that both will top sooner than later. Not now, but give it a month or two. Gold challenging that upper trendline should provide some resistance as well. 

10:28 - Finally a VIX chart - I used to be Dr. VIX. I used to call almost every trade by the VIX but not these days. As mentioned often I believe it is not nearly as reliable an indicator as it used to be. Anyway, The wedge does no match the market but the count does. That green bar is where 5 would equal 1. There appear to be 5 waves completed in the 5th and the divergences are there for a pop.That is an Island gap at the 50% retrace and there is resistance in that hood as well. That would work nicely with my ABC call.

10:13 - SPX 30m - (not updated) Looks like the red support line has cracked. Now the two black lines from the overthrown mini wedge are in play as support. Indicators look really bad here, but we all know what they can do to those. Most notable is the TNX falling like a rock. Price should catch or at least follow that.

10:08 - SPX  -  not the best chart but you can see the gaps and support lines. If price can get thru 15 it will get to 10 then you go from 10 to 5 and from 5 to 00/97. That is asking a lot. A fib off the 97 lows has the retracements as 13.5, 10.5 and 7.5 roughly. That 10.5 lines up nicely with support, so let's see if we can get at least that today.

10:00 - Minis 15m  Green support line near 09 is the first key. the gap support at 08 is the second key. If we can get into or near there, then we can address further action, but I will not put the cart ahead of the horse just yet.

12:35 - Minis actually down? I don't care if it is less than a point. Wedge and 4hr indicators should say it all.
In case that chart is not clear enough try this $INDU 30m wedge with triple divergence. If it does not reverse tomorrow I will be totally surprised. Apparently there will have to be some sort of news event, cause this market does not just fall on it's own.
 The RUT 30m is the cleanest of them all. Overthrowing the wedge here with double divergence.

See you in the morning.
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