Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Tech industry needs to be checked for performance enhancing drugs. Oh, that's right, they are mostly in Cali where that shit is legal. 

Nasty HnS on the 1m RUT (This should make Inc happy I posted this).  690 target.Looks great, BUT past 5 wave falls have been greeted by a pop, drop and then ramp. If the blue support diagonal fails it could get interesting.

Minis and SPX are out of the channel indicating danger. 78 to 80 is the resistance area on the SPX. Anything above that and bulls may ahve a field day. If it stays below that the bears will have the ball. I am expecting a range bound day to down as no POMO will be released today. Possible large wedge in play (see top and bottom green diagonals. Pink line has been a support line off of the 09/08 lows.

And to those of you wondering why the ramp - the dollar.  GDP announcement launched the dollar and it took the markets a few minutes to react to catch up.

Let's see what GDP has to offer before we make any calls or post any charts. No POMO and several key data points this AM will set the tone early. Elections will set the tone late. DOW futures sitting in a precarious spot on 11,000 support.

I will be leaving at 10:30 today for the day. I will be carving pumpkins with the Little Shankys at school then headed across the state to watch my nephew play some HS football.

I ope everyone gets more treats than tricks this Saturday night.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

NYSE total volume - got to get it over the yellow line.By a bunch!

SPX 10m with gaps and fibs. There is the upper diagonal I was referring to at the close. Open took price to the 61% fib at 87.5. Once again, anything above this severely lessens the chance of that move being nothing more than a corrective.

Told you we were on a point where it could explode late yesterday. After false breakdown and a really ice retrace off the 93 highs on the minis she's rallied back into the wedge.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

VIX essentially has an open gap all the way down to 19.95. 

Minis channel - Setting up for a nice POMO pop tomorrow?  Will that busted support become resistance near 76? Will the channel hold? Stay tuned for another episode of As POMO Turns.

Comparison chart -  INDU has caught the financials and COMPQ is lagging badly.

RUT daily - Large channel

Drilled down. Blue channel is working. Black wedge is busted. I quit if price hits the upper end of that blue channel again, so since that can not happen, let's look for it to break down here sooner than later.

Minis holding support so far -  refer to earlier charts for bigger picture.

DOW daily - 

 DOW 30m -

SPX cycle chart - I get the most mileage out of this puppy and till it breaks I'll keep on believing in it. 

4hr minis - down 5 this morning at 76 support. there is a pink diagonal and a lowered rising wedge support diagonal here as well.chart is ugly and very busy, but when you get runs like this there is a lot to take into account. this is one of my working charts, so you can see all the things I am considering (I even removed the VWAP work to clean this chart up).

4hrs drilled down - if 76 level cracks and holds then 65, 50, 35 and finally 25 are the support numbers to look for.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

12:30 SPX ascending triangle

30m comparison chart -  Financials lagging TRAN and COMP holding up the best so far.

Minis 4hr - Down a bit at midnight.

The old wedge support is now dashed and the new one has been lowered. I have not raised the upper. Not so sure if that it the right move yet or not. Lowering support lines can be common as wedges play out. Note where the old wedge ended/apexed up and to the right on Wednesday.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

$TRAN daily - the wedges may make more sense if they are drawn from the early August highs and not the intermediate top in mid-August. It does not make much difference. Looks like a topping 3rd wave. Scary pullback and then one last short squeeze before implosion?

30m comparison chart - Financials on their normal spot lagging a rising market. 

1m Comparison - everyone is on the same page now.

SPX 30m - I'm not seeing anything that says buy in this chart. Divergences are set for a sell off, but they are not uniform which botehrs me some.The red diagonal has been a good overthrow indicator for some time now. Possible completed purple wedge. If trend holds SPX should continue to pull back here.

Possible inverted HnS on the AUD/JPY targeting the resistance area near $81.50. USD is at support (for now).

More in the morning. Everyone say happy b-day to me and go vote on SC.

Minis spike to new highs as dollar flash crashes to 74 (and all by midnight!)

Dollar Friday after the close.

Weekend Post

Open to all to comment and communicate. Post chart, link and comments.

Chattanooga, TN is a wonderful place.

I hope everyone has a great weekend.

Morning Post

Vacation fine so far. Ruby Falls, Lookout Mountain, Rock city and the Civil War battle fields today.

With G20 this weekend currency moves should be reserved unless someone wants to make a statement.

Today is a POMO day.

Did not get much done last night as should be expected, but these major indexes got updated. So, let's back it out to a longer term daily view.

Next

COMPQ

Is this a large wedge that is throwing over? Weekly RSI is now over 70. Most noteable is that if we take out the April highs we'll have a nice divergence set.

GL today. I'll be around this morning for a while then checking out. I'll put up a weekend post for comments and charts. Thanks for your support, comments and votes on SC. Have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

SURPRISE - Still int the wings. We're packed and ready to go now. One last chart.

Possibly a completed 5. Looks out for rond level of 90 and then of course for 2000. May be close enough that they have the scent. No POMO and a ramp. Not so sure it could get any worse. Just a few more gaps.

Looking at charts last night, the daily charts are screaming for a retrace to 1130 with the lower BB, 50 and 200mas and the former highs as support. Maybe we get something this weekend, or we just have to wait for the election and the QEII announcement. Or like Greg asked, will the market ever fall?

Rich may be right about the whimper. Ribs and chicken sound good ODA. Incarnate, bring enough beer for everyone not just you. As for the others that did not offer anything I'm disappointed. I'm off now. GL!

Minis topped (so far) at the upper wedge resistance line and pulled back even after the jobs report supposedly surprised. If all this positive news only has the minis up 5, I view that as incredibly weak. Apparently our counting of the 3 corrective to 62.5 low was it. and we should finish a 5 up this morning. The big question is does price break out to new highs, does it remain in this range or does it finally have some sort of meaningful retracement? This wedge action is undeniable, but an overthrow (even a significant one) is still possible but doubtful as there is not much wedge left and the daily MACD has gone in bear mode. I still worry about that 1200 level just above but really think this is the top at or near this level.

I will not be here today or tomorrow. Fall break and we're taking the kids on an old fashioned vacation to the Chattanooga, TN area which should be a lot of fun. No intraday comments (unless I call Incarnate and tell him to note something), but I will be reviewing things at night and will also have a morning post tomorrow. Chart updates will be limited till Sunday night.

Dollar falling again. Not sure with where the USD/JPY pair is that they can allow it to fall much farther. 

CAT and MCD beat and the minis set a higher high. All praise POMO, the promise of QE II and lowered earnings estimates. When the fact that all this growth that is the reflation trade ramped by nothing more than fiat currency, zero interest rates and sensational amounts of debt is finally realized, the pain will finally set in.

Minis 60m - The pattern is plain to see. Range bound rectangles and ramps.The question is are we about to tirn 80 resistance into support and move into a new range from 80 to 00?

Here the trend is back to 1040 levels. They cycle fairly well and they measure nicely. You are witnessing an artificial controlled and measured ramping of the markets.

If the markets get a good whiff of 2000 level that would only make sense to be the next 20 point range to travel into. Guess what is 20 points past that? QEII and POMO and the fact that they MUST at all costs keep the markets afloat means this charade will continue until someone somewhere calls shenanigans on the Fed and administration. It is totally awesome that they can do this to support the global elite all the while shifting wealth and future tax obligations to them as well. God bless America. As investors we need to do as they say, "follow the money". Sadly this appears to be the only reliable trade till it all implodes.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis 60m -Not sure if the channel is it or not as the SPX has busted the upper diagonal resistance. Looking at the indicators this is a key point. Can the bears maintain momo at this point of not?Here you can also clearly see the volatile range bound action over the past week between 81 and 63. Price cracked this yesterday, but is now back into the range. One other thing to note is the lower green doagonal was the wedge support. A backtest of this may be in order. 

Will the dollar and the markets lose correlation?  Granted the dollar is oversold and screams ABC retracement at LT triangle support. See mid-June where both trucked it down. the point of this is to let you know both can move in the same direction.

SPX 30m -Bears may have to wait for this chart to cycle.

Off to the big blog.

Minis support at 63. Hit a high of 70 overnight. Daily MACD bear cross holding so far.

67 is the daily VWAP. Trading right on top of that now.

1m VWAP bands are 71 and 62.

ST BB's are really narrowing.

Price is trending down at the moment 5 points off the overnight highs.

Dow minis 10960 v. 10965 close.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

After faking the breakdown SPX tried to close that island gap. Came within .40 of closing the gap. 

SPX island gap at 66.4. See black rectangle. 

Woops - maybe that financial problem was real? 

Hiccup correction completed. Sorry bout that slight divergence in the financials. We won't let it happen again. All the ducks back in a row Sir!

Dollar Daily with Fib. 

Minis 30m 4 days. Rinse/repeat range bound action between 63 and 82.You got two options, it is either consolidating for a top or a further move higher. Green diagonals are what once was the wedge.

SPX 1m index comparison updated. 

SPX 5m today.Running along that lower wedge support line. Wedge is roughly 12 points wide here.

nn

1m comparison chart 

Financials are back in the heard. 

Yesterday in my closing comment I said, "The wedge has been reduced to a mere 15 point sliver. It is clearly consolidating and obeying the parameters. The overthrow this time (if the top is not set now) should be it and will most likely garner a top call of some sort from me in spite of QEII, elections and POMO. Most likely I said, I still got a few hours to think about it. These divergences and that daily MACD may be to much to ignore."


Let's watch the open to see what this crazy mixed up market has in store for us. No POMO today. I'll make the call before lunch I think. 

That is all that is left of the wedge as the minis trade from top to bottom since 6:45 this morning.