Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

2:50: - Possible HnS I was mentioning this morning - here it is on the NAS - 

2:11 - RUT looks more like a bear flag to me. Fighting channel support if you take the pop out this morning. In defense of the bull case, sure looks like the 30m MACD is trying to bull cross here, BUT RSI is stuck at 50 and has been which is not good.

11:54 - For those of you that love triple bottoms and bull crossing MACD's on the 30m charts - here you go. I see a right shoulder forming - don't you?  Target is the last low at 10? What a fit that would be! Now if we can get that 30m MACD to cooperate we'll be in business. 60 would be a nice height of the RS, but the 30m 200ma can hold here if it likes. Of course it could just continue to melt on up. 

10:51 - SPX at Island support. These things are amazing to me. 

10:46 - DOW fractal to Friday update. Pop time? We'll just have to wait and see. 

10:16 - In case you want some fractals with last Friday use your imagination here. I'm not sure what to think. It is hitting some resistance here and there is more data to come this week which may put a lid on things at this level id not up near 55.

10:02 - All is well. Stop investing and get out and get some early Xmas shopping done. Nothing to see here except that Island bottom left at 1049. 

RUT and DOW will have taken out key round support levels at the open. SPX will be on the number and NAS is in orbit is some other solar system seemingly not correlated (IMO) to the other indexes. It is very rare the minis gap like this. The fell right o the 37 low and stopped. We've learned from the 30m charts to pay attention to the MACD bull crosses here and especially at support. Now, they can embed and without Shalom to spark the market this time, support may finally crack and let go like we all expect. Note the apex of the sky blue triangle later today. May be a key moment. I'll be back after the big blog post is done.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

2:24 - minis 1m - I think the 200ma is influencing price. Ya think!

After being up 8 when I went to bed last night, the minis are now down 1. No biggie, they just reset the 30m indicators so they would be nice and strong coming out of the gate as price backtests the old upper resistance diagonal. this 69 to 72 lever is proving resistance now, 79, 84 and 97 would be the resistance levels I see. To the downside (I know, why mention it when Ben has promised to manipulate the markets to eternity?) 58 and 54 are there to start in case reality should set in.

Off to the big blog - Good luck this week!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

3:25 - Possible SPX wedge 

1:37 - TNX crumbling all day. 

11:46 - IF this was a HnS breakout you are looking at a 68 target. this is obviously not a given and highly suspect play, but it is a possibility.Who the hell really knows anymore? I would be really surprised if that blue diagonal cracked to the upside. 15m overbought and looks like a blow off top scenario (adding to that of this morning).

10:32 - INTC - This is not normal - a pop like that after revision? throw in a market rally and you have some VERY suspect action. In other words this is total bullshit. 

10:29 - Pick a gap - any gap. That was insane.I'd say they are protecting 40 big time. What do you think?

10:07 - SPX this morning. Green rectangle is the island gap. Not giving it much cred, but those like to fill.No fibs sorry. Not needed, just went lower low.

9:45 - Ben at 10 - minis with S/R levels.  Black line is the 200ma. Pink line in the middle is the VWAP. Pink lines on top and bottom are the VWAP bands. White are BB's.

Not willing to stick my neck out on the GDP number tonight. At midnight minis are dead on zero and have had a range of 5. Dollar is flat and so is gold. AUD/JPY spiked some. EUR/USD is quiet. TNX is flat.

Bewwy qwiet as Elmer Fud would say.


SPX long term weekly chart from the top in '07. This chart is best viewed HERE in my chatbook. For those of you new to following me this is the chart I used since before last October to really zero in on what was my 1224 target for the top. I also called the earlier fall to lower the supporting diagonal before the higher highs would be set (the C to D move of the wedge).

See that tiny pink box? Let's see if wave one can end inside it near 940. For the longest time I have speculated that wave 1 of 3 would backtest the bear market upper trendline and then bounce up for two and on a powerful 3rd finally crack back thru on it's way to lower lows.

There are two valid bear market resistance lines (black and blue. The black one is the one I am using for this target. The blue one is sitting right under price here and may have influenced the pop at 1040 with the support there. I chart with various platforms and the black one seems most consistent amongst the charts. 

That pink box is the most logical spot for this to happen. Pure speculation, but it is worth a shot. Actually I consider this a conservative call and have targets lower than that.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

2:04 - Dig this trendline - Again - From the top - Big fat red dashed one. Yup, I'd say it is relevant. Call it critical support (and it is cracking right now).

12:44 - 1m minis today -Looks familiar. All the action in the morning and then a range bound mess.

10:38 - From the top - Range bound minis. Lord help the shorts if this is an inverse HnS. Possible A (green) B (blue) C back to 27 corrective. Possible 1 of 3 ending here and it needs a corrective to set a bigger more impulsing drive from a third wave to crack that support level. Backtested the green diagonal at 40 support. Slight divergence on the 4hr MACD. Bottom line is that if 40 goes so does the market, but if it can hols a run back to the top of the range can not be ruled out. the fibs for this fall from the 27 top are 71, 82 and 92.

Sorry for the confusion, but as I analyze the data (and throw in the PPT and GDP issues) you have to be looking in both directions here.

30m SPX - Backtesting the HnS neckline or is it the falling wedge throwing under? Really tough call as the 30 and 60 say climb, the daily and weekly say drop and the Fed and Treasury will just friggin move it wherever the hell they want and the jobs and GDP data still to come. The way I want to count it is that the low today ended 1 of 3 and we're in a corrective that may go thru tomorrow and the big fall happens Friday or Monday.

I'm still a big believer it is going to take a LEH type incident to really kick start the fall (nope the fall is not going good just yet). We need true capitulation that we never got in P1. This will happen in 3 of 3 for sure. I have speculated on two market closures in this primary wave 3. So, will GDP be enough Friday to really get this puppy moving? Possibly. Something has to kick off a third of a third. My thoughts on the jobs number is that they are becoming less relevant (and are always revised so the data can be fudged to get what they want).

So, with so many possible calls, I'm pulling this out of the hat - regardless of the jobs number it goes up tomorrow some and possibly collapses into the close. Friday GDP kicks off the impulse we have all been looking for and over the weekend something happens that really throws it under the bus. This move does not stop till the weeklys give a buy signal. 975 is  a good number (not a target - I'm struggling with setting that). None of this is set in stone and we always have to adapt to whatever they are throwing at us. There are obviously two scenarios and I could sell you either. I prefer to let the opportunities show their hand and then pounce. As usual, we always warn against unsuspected upside in this rigged market.

Oh - no more hot chick picks - mama got on Shanky for being insensitive, chauvinistic and unprofessional. Maybe she is right, but that does not mean you can't  post pics of your own below!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

2:50 - SPX triangle with E overthrow after reaching 55 C=A target is the best I have for the bears here.If you are not convinced this market is rigged, please go get your head examined.Only because of the news in the morning am I not calling this a bigger move to the 75 double fib confluence. Other than oversold there is no reason for the markets to be moving up.

2:16 - 50 level passed on SPX - possible wedge with 55 as the ABC target. 

12:39 - SPX 1m (ignore that pink box with no data in it that totally fucked me yesterday) and follow the 200ma and price. Similarities between yesterday and today I think.Not sure if I am going to get another pink box today or not, but if I do you'll hear me bitching. Just took out that 46 support. 43 is the lower BB and they are narrowing. 

11:25 - INDU 1m channel at 61.8% retracement and at that dashed red resistance line. If RUT filled the gap from this morning I also suspect SPX to as well. I think she consolidates here thru lunch.10,000 is support now.

10:56 - Minis 1m chart I keep referring to. Watch that 200ma. 

9:46 - Dollar is all over the place. 

9:41 - Minis 5. Oversold and climbing. Here it the wedge I have that has completed an A-E formation. That yellow dashed is the neckline of the HnS.Lots of support here. Let's see what the housing and petrol numbers have to say at 10.

Just putting the post out here in case anyone wants to comment tonight and so I can work on it.

Here, let this keep you busy.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

3:05 - Another ToS blackout? I did not need that data anyway. Thanks Skynet! LOL

11:32 - RUT completing right shoulder. It is shit or get time this week. 

11:07 - Merrill Lynch kept the market from crashing this morning. Friggin bought everything. It is their fault.

Remember that 1m chart above with markets bottoming between 11 and 12. SPX 1m with the possible triangle.

/ES - minis absolutely nailed the diagonal discussed below and reversed. No, I have not adjusted anything. 61 is the max I can see for this retracement. 1m is overbought.

9:10 -Minis fell to the 1051 level I have been showing as an initial target. Backtesting the resistance diagonal off the top in April and meeting the wedge target line (blue dashed) at the same time. 70 and 61 are now resistance. This 30m chart is really oversold, but I do not think indicators matter now as it is quite possible a rush for the exits could ensue. This is one of those collective conscience points where the light bulb finally comes on for everyone. I'll have to dig to get some really specific targets, but I think all you need to know is SPX 1000 and DOW 10,000. Those should be no brainers over the next week or so.

Minis and the range. If 61 cracks, I'm not sure how low it can go. Minis down 4 at 1:15.

Dollar may be about to fall some.

Nothing like a possible little HnS on the 5m chart.

1m SPX 12:00 lows and ramp jobs. We might want to look out for this trend to continue.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

10:52 - This is the 30m bear set up I was mentioning on the big blog at the open. The 30m minis are at this 70 support. This is where I speculated gap fill and bounce.Half the call appears to be good so far. I do not like how weak the markets look (as far as my bounce call goes) I am in cash after several scalps. This is a line in the sand.

10:06 - Possible SPX wedge. This is much more bearish than I am. We always use the charts and not what we think or feel.

First look at the last couple of posts on the big blog to get your day started and so you'll understand what I refrence when I write.

Here is a chart I have never posted - SPY - My only comment is that Island Tops (blue gap thru the top) may want to get satisfied, No guarantees to that. I'm gonna get some sleep. See you in the AM. Let's rock it this week!

Open Weekend Post

I found this chart rather interesting. What has not happened that should have? VIX divergence, USB spike and the SPX becoming disassociated from the TNX all together with the telling (this time proactive and not reactive) spike in the USB. Volume fading away. My guess is that SPX falls to equilibrium with TNX and the VIX goes ape shit. I'd load up on VXX. This fits really well with the HnS charts on the big blog this weekend.

Everyone have a good one. Leave links or comments or whatever. I'll update the post (from top to bottom) with whatever I see worth reporting.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

3:40 - $DJUSFN 1m divergence - looks great but dangerous if they are serious about moving this bad boy higher.  5m Bear cross on MACD with S Sto and RSI divergence as well.

3:33 - Want to know why they are fighting back so hard right here on the RUT?  That is a170 point HnS with a right shoulder possibly completing here. 430 target if it should happen. Again, they need a catalyst.

3:00 - Heeeeere's 71!  Not sure what happens here, but if this cracks I'd be out of shorts.

1:24 - Note the 200ma on this 133tk chart. Like a magnet and it it trading above it and trending with it. I'll let you know if the ma cracks. The pink line in the middle is the VWAP. Pink lines on to and bottom are VWAP bands. That should dictate the total range.

 12:40 - Minis have been stuck in the tiny little range on the lower right side all morning after breaking thru support. Something is holding her up. That diagonal is the original upper resistance line from the April top. It is sitting near 55 which works well with what I'm seeing on the SPX targets. 30m indicators embedded for the most part with nice divergence on MACD and RSI.

Here is today's action - Volume is dwindling.

12:17 nothing to really show chart wise. Lower lows and just trickling down. That is better than trickling sideways. Targets if she lets go are 55 to 48.

10:57 - Rich is gonna hate me for this. 30m SPX with divergences. Yes, I put a dashed medium green buy line on it (strong possibility). This chart is not infallible, but I do live and die by it. In circumstances like this, I suggest you hold long or short wherever you are and watch the tape closely with stops. If that HnS breaks down we're at 30 in a heartbeat. If not a retrace all the way to 92 is a possibility. The count says no retrace yet (but you all know I hate counting and think it is a load of crap that will get you in more trouble than you need to be in).

10:30 - SPX possible triangle.

10:25 -  SPX from the 1100 top with fibs and gaps. PPT made their stand at the neckline as expected. This looks like a corrective here. Let it form a channel or whatever and then we can get a grip on things. Target as high as the gap at 73 SPX at this point unless it breaks down of course.

9:33 - Remember this possible HnS set up on SPX. It fits well with the Hindenburg Omen and the possible Iran nuke issue. 

8:35 - Minis set lower low. Backtetsing the original resistance line from the Apr 24 top and nearing the wave 2 target line (see bottom right corner of chart near 55) - off to the big blog. 

Minis flat. Nothing happening right now. See you in the morning.