August 12, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

3:37 - Line in the sand - 87 if that cracks the bulls will be happy.

3:30 - Resistance on the minis at 84 - if that cracks the longs may go ape shit. 

3:10 - Tiggers are wonderful things - Bouncy trouncy

2:40 - Minis falling but holding TL so far. 

2:06 - Backtest or breakdown. We'll know soon. 

UPDATE - Possible SPX wedge - 

UPDATE - This FAS HnS wors well with the one on the $DJUSFN - You do the target for this one?Ominous I'd say.

UPDATE - Island on the RUT -


UPDATE - Minis coming into support. Possible green wedge. 30m is unclear as MACD may be whipsawing.Possible backtest of the 97 S/R level coming here.


School is back in, so some more informative morning posts are coming again. Still behind updating the chartbooks in SC, sorry bout that. Below you'll see lots of reasons the market should begin some sort of sustained sell off. 

Dollar - $DXY - bouncing off the 61% retracement and the 200ma with BUY signals on the daily charts (You UUP fans need to be alert here).


EUR/USD - falling again today. Sitting just above a support line at 38% retracement. Daily sell signals.
AUD/JPY - this chart shows the consolidation and support. Daily sell signal as well.
Gold - /YG - I think it is backtesting the wedge breakdown after bouncing off the daily 200ma.

Natgas- /NG - Right in the middle of the range. Weekly RSI and S Sto look weak here. I think the churn down continues.
Oil - /CL - The corrective wedge is consolidating even more now after completing a 50% retracement. Testing lower support. Daily sell signal (yet again). Volume is going away.
SPX daily indicator chart - What strength there is on this chart is fading fast from what I can see. Hard to see, but that spike in the dollar should be very telling. Interest rates crumbling is another tell.

SPX 30m - Lawdy I love my wedges. Pulled back right to the green targeted double fib confluence are. Dashed blue line it the wedge target line. 30m is bottoming, but no divergences. You may get one this morning with the drop from the jobs number. This puppy may embed. We have to keep an eye on it.
Minis - /ES 4hr - Still some room to fall on the indicators. Blue dashed is wedge target. Not sure at this time if the yellow dashed diagonal is important or not. It may be so it is there.
OK, chart mania is over for today. The big question is how well the PPT and BD's can support the market and where do they choose to do it. Look for round and support levels for them to pick their battles. I would not add to any LT shorts here just yet. We need some sort of pop after a 40 handle drop. So' we fall, maybe the 30m chart cycles for the pop, then we fall off the cliff.

GL out there. Thanks for all your support and views.
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