August 16, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Updated SPX 30m Chart - I'll comment on it in the morning. 

4:04 - Sorry for the lack of charts after the last one - I gots to be trading sometimes. See you in the morning. 

2:34 - SPX 30m chart. Possible wedge forming. 30m MACD is not ready for a turn yet. Small divergence on RSI5. 

1:41 - Possible SPX wedge. If it cracks it could retrace all the way to 88 level. 

12:58 - The SDS corresponding Island Bottom. 32.11 closes it and backtests the TL breakout possibly.I'm just pointing out that it exists and it is a good reason to be cautious. Plus this 60m chart still looks bearish.

12:22: What would POSSIBLY be max pain for shortie?  Pick your flavor. Not saying they are all going to bottom and consolidate again. This is not anywhere near that tunnel vision move we had early this year, but do they all need a dead cat bounce and one more period of consolidation? Just asking.

11:16 - You gotta let it play out here. This 30m chart should tell the story (unless this is some sort of real BS manipulated move). At this time I'm thinking it is possibly a blow off top and not part of anything larger. If it continues thru the day, then the set up to short the open may be really good.

10:32 - Rectangle continuation - Read about it HERE at stock charts. Cleanest chart is on the minis. I like them holding resistance this morning.I do not like the way this 4hr chart looks. A big down vol candle would be nice to set off the pattern.

9:27 - Looks overbought here at resistance, but we all know that means little in this manipulated POS market. Just keep that in mind. Not sure how sound this wedge is, but it has enough points to count. I'd say a pullback to the 200ma or the VWAP here near 83 would be in order. Maybe not though, we'll have to see just how bullish it gets. the SPX 50ma is 87.5 which may set off some sort of market reaction.

Minis up over 7, but I think that will change based on the resistance and where the 30m indicators are. We still have numbers to come this AM, so that is a risky call. This 30m chart says it should be week or at least have a muted climb from here if it does.
 

Minis up 3 at 11:30 tonight after being down earlier. Not sure how the market will react to all the economic data in the morning. There will be a bunch of it. None of it really matters as it is all a bunch of manipulated crap that gets revised downward and even then the data does not tell the truth. Should be interesting. Several are expecting a pop. I am still leaning that way. I was surprised at the late weakness this afternoon. I thought they'd be able to ramp it up. The markets are really screwed up. It is only a matter of time now. I'm not sure if we will see this one coming or not. I suspect the big one(s) will happen overnight and we'll wake up to a closed market one morning (or two). It is gonna be really scary.


Economic Calendar -

I've been really lazy withe the charts. Various reasons for that. One main one is that they appear to be broken somewhat to me, and I hate updating busted charts. No, not kidding about that. Sure I see patterns and indicators, but now I'm seeing (or feeling) a disturbance in the force. I don't like disruptive things. I prefer order in my universe (lots of it). I think the dislocations (like the 52wk hi/lo offset) are fucking with my sense of structure. Yeah, I'm seeing the patterns and reading the indicators, but I'm feeling something different. Usually I can call a crash a day or two in advance, but this time the feeling is different. Not sure how to describe this one. I see the 5 waves down and the setup for a potential pop or fall for that matter, but I just feel something different. It is strange when I start feeling things. Hard to describe that. What is strange is I am not feeling a specific direction. Just feeling something. Like a disturbance in the force. Sorry for the ramblings. Just had to get that out. We'll know in a few days what I'm feeling I think.Yes, I'm strange like that. We have a 75% chance of something happening I'd say.

See you in the AM.
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