August 18, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis after the close - Think someone wanted A) for the market to close green and B) Also wanted to get the hell out?


3:36 - RUT

3:33 - SPX possible RS coming in. 

3:28 - COMP H&S


2:50 - Potential H&S on SPX. 1074 target if it is right. 

2:11 - SPX 30m with nasty divergences.Yesterday I pointed out that the 30m was not that strong a sell signal. this is really powerful. Nothing is guaranteed of course. Setups like these have been blown thru in the past and they will fail again. The 1100 resistance is there and if that cracks 06 is the number and the 17 of course. If you short it, tight stops are mandatory as you are trying to pick the top of a nice bull move and it can rip you a new one.

11:48 - Let me set this one up for you - the Rabbit is the HFT Algo Bots and we're the crusaders. We're to ignorant to see all the short carnage at the mouth of the cave, so we attack anyway.....RUN AWAY! RUN AWAY


11:00 - RUT Triangle 

10:09 - SPX 1m with gaps and fib.

9:35 - I have to go digest trading opps now, but I'll report back soon. Here is my ToS SPX 10m chart. Looks bearish with price tagging the 200m, busting thru my wedge target line and possibly holding that diagonal above the 200ma. IF THAT CRACKS she's gonna take back all that move down to the 80 range near gap support and the 61% retracement. I'll caution about the bears getting some real momo today. Looks like the futures were a tease. 


9:34 - In cash. Minis took a hard move south for some reason. The SPX 30m below is in a confirmed sell mode so the trend should remain down near term. It is now retracing 38% of the climb at the 88 level (what I was looking for yesterday). If that cracks and the 60m kicks in the downward pressure may build. On the big blog I voted for consolidation with a wide range between the 50 and 200dma's. I have wedges on all my 30m charts that if they hold this sell off may get pretty testy.


Minis flat. All the 30m charts look weak. I updated (finally) a bunch of charts in the chartbook (no Inc, sorry I did not get to the RUT section yet). I'm still digesting the fall from yesterday afternoon and it's validity. I want to see the action before the open before I make any calls. The 60 and 30m charts say down, but the daily was just beginning to show some strength. So, the indicators are not on the same page,

I'll be back in the AM with hopefully a clear picture.
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