August 1, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

1:25 - WOPR is on life support

1:04 - This is just sick. 

11:30 - WOPR taking an early lunch? 
 AUD/JPY might have broken down here.

11:17 - MENT to be shorted LOL Keep an eye on it. Vol is drying up though.

11:00 - This is nasty looking. 
This one is Fugly but you get the picture. That tiny green wedge on the right is the chart above.

10:50 - F may be a good short opp here soon - 11.87 is a good first target. Triple top with massive divergences on shorter time frames. The other side is if it breaks out the longer time frames may geek you. Keep stops tight  just in case.


9:40 - These huge spikes tend to get reversed quickly. Not saying this one will, but you never know. They flush the shorts out and then pull it back. That red dashed diagonal may have some meaning.

After reviewing the charts there are several inconsistencies I am seeing. I'd love to say down, but I can't just yet. Minis are up over 7 at 11:40 tonight. This shit is insane. After charting a bunch I am concerned about how this thing is topping and how it bottomed. The ADX is one major concern. It is closing in on a sell signal but not there yet. CPC, NYMO, SPXA50 and the weekly charts are other concerns. Where the RSI14 is with it's 20ma is not right for a fall yet. It is close, but not there yet. Maybe none of my topping signals come this time. Maybe this time is different. It should be as the trend has changed from bull to bear market. We'll have to see. I think I got a bead on it, but I don't like what I am seeing. the bears best case is the RSI5 and the MACD hist both are diverging on the daily chart. This is usually pretty reliable as far as telling a turn is coming. My wedge is playing out and if the triangle is right the overthrow should be completed.

I suggest that you read Alan Greenspan: "The Financial System Is Broke". I have preached for well over a year now that the market is all they have left between them and total anarchy. That they must keep it elevated at all cost. So ZH infers from Greenspan's interview, "In other words, the Fed's dual mandate of maximizing employment and promoting a stable inflation rate have been brushed aside, and the one and only prerogative for Chairman Ben currently, and for the short and long-term future, is to keep the Dow Jones (because nobody in the administration, even the Fed, has heard about the S&P yet), above 10,000." It is their agenda and with the elections coming this may become even more important to them. Now, it may be actually (really) out of their hands now, but they seem to have an innate ability to be able to make the market levitate. Do not discount their abilities or motives to rig this market.

Here are the minis with buy/sell lines going back a while on 30m, 60m and 4hr charts.
30m - This one will change dramatically by the morning. Keep an eye on it. I'll bet they have it bull crossing right at the open. 

60m - getting toppy, but has room to run.
4hr - Looks like it has a bullish tint to it.
 As for the $DJUSFN things don't look so hot (barring some sort of manipulation which would NEVER happen).

Daily - The HnS with resistance. Those divergences are telling.

Weekly - the big bear wedge.
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