October 5, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

11:00 - Minis 4hr - The beauty of clicking the wrong button and blowing up your chart is you get to do it again. Here is the latest and greatest. You can barely see it, but the upper bear market resistance line (pink) is on top of price now. The Oct '09 (blue) is coming in from the right. Backtesting the wedge (if it is drawn right and support does not need to be lowered - light green dashed). Pink S/R diagonal is important support I believe. Yellow price level at 24 ( and the 23% retrace) is the first major hurdle south  That 38% fib at 09 is also some good support. 200ema (orange) is at 1115, that is support number two here. Just a slight divergence in RSI and MACD. Price is consolidating for sure. Can it break out? Of course it can. I don't think it will, but in this market anything is possible. In any normal situation I would call top here at this backtest and the double resistance with the divergences.


Minis down 1.5 at midnight trading in a very narrow uneventful range. As mentioned in the post from ZH Guest Post: Learn How Out-of-the-Money Butterflies Create Profits Trading SPX you get, "If the S&P 500 breaks out over the 1150 area with strong volume we could move higher to test recent highs; however, if the 1040 area were to give way to the bears the bullish parade would end. At this point in time, it is too early to tell which side is going to win this battle." After that I now feel better about my lack of commitment to a call and about my tentative nature these days. So, this basically confirms I am not nuts. 

Unlike the quote above I don;t think the April highs get taken out. It is possible with QEII and TARP II and how they will supply the markets with more false optimism and a fresh injection of new cash. I'm looking at 1075 range for the max if the top is not in. It is quite possible we have not met the extreme bullish requirements necessary to top, yet this time should be different. Very rarely do I ever show or give a count. You know I despise and think EWT is a killer. These are the two possibilities. Either in a 3 or ending an ABC corrective (based on today and tomorrow being POMO days).I have mentioned here and on the big blog for a long time about form of the fall and we'd come to a couple of points like this where, if you are counting , you'll get lost and have to wait on price to confirm where we are. Welcome to one of those points.

blog comments powered by Disqus