October 18, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

DOW off a buckie! Currencies off, gold off - something is happening. 

Minis off 10 after the close. 

WEEEE! All hail the financial index! Quite the change. I guess Fraudclosuregate was no big deal after all? Phew, had me worried there for a minute.

Worst case scenario for the bears.Down for 4 and up for 5. As I have harped on for months now, the form of the fall here will be key and there will be a moment where we either have a third or a C and will have to make a decision. Was this the end of ABC 2 or is this just a 3rd and we have one more ramp to go? The initial forecasted plunge (near 10/25 - nice B-day present for 'ol Shanky) should take price to 50/30/19/10/00 (sorry can't give a target but those are the obvious points - I like 00 and a touch of the lower channel line before a ramp into EOY - then crash in February).  This is all hypothetical right now and just mumbling thru the possibilities. Either way the big move happens in or near February I think.

2:20 - Remember that 1m double gap down I told you to keep an eye on. Apparently it was simply a trigger to get POMO to work. This is quite the whipsaw. 

12:20 - Who's gonna lay catchup? 

12:15 - Role reversal? 

See the charts below.

Everything looks pretty bad at this moment, but we got POMO today and earnings tonight and tomorrow that could really move the markets either way, esp AAPL and GS.

GL this week.
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