November 18, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

DOW 10m - rolling over at diagonal resistance? 

SPX 30m - Chart does not look healthy. Not totally sick, just not healthy esp when combined with the 5 and 15m charts, but we've seen these abused recently before.Let's see if that 30m 200ma can be enough resistance to reverse this puppy.

Morning Doji Star -
From Stockcharts.com
The morning star consists of three candlesticks:
  1. A long black candlestick.
  2. A small white or black candlestick that gaps below the close of the previous candlestick. This candlestick can also be a doji, in which case the pattern would be a morning doji star.
  3. A long white candlestick.
The black candlestick confirms that the decline remains in force and selling dominates. When the second candlestick gaps down, it provides further evidence of selling pressure. However, the decline ceases or slows significantly after the gap and a small candlestick forms. The small candlestick indicates indecision and a possible reversal of trend. If the small candlestick is a doji, the chances of a reversal increase. The third long white candlestick provides bullish confirmation of the reversal.

and your current daily setup - The only thing missing is the gap below. Got the gap on the right.
Or a Bullish Abandoned Baby -

The bullish abandoned baby resembles the morning doji star and also consists of three candlesticks:
  1. A long black candlestick.
  2. A doji that gaps below the low of the previous candlestick.
  3. A long white candlestick that gaps above the high of the doji.
The main difference between the morning doji star and the bullish abandoned baby are the gaps on either side of the doji. The first gap down signals that selling pressure remains strong. However, selling pressure eases and the security closes at or near the open, creating a doji. Following the doji, the gap up and long white candlestick indicate strong buying pressure and the reversal is complete. Further bullish confirmation is not required.

Again missing the gap on the left but got it on the right.

Minis 60m - Pretty overbought, but that does not mean this can't continue as Cash is still driving up the hill. Who wins the tug-o-war? 

EUR/USD - 
 AUD/JPY -
 /DX - Dollar -

SPX 1m -  Just under 61% retracement and the upper resistance diagonal. I would expect it to curn to that pont and then we'll have to make a big boy decision. Since this looks like a possible 3rd to me then more upside should be expected. That is not guaranteed. The measurement for the ABC I was looking at yesterday took us to 92, so this may be it around here. Those are the two options. Time will tell. Still a lot of issues hanging over the market esp with bonds.

Pop time. We've been looking for it and our line of thinking was pretty much spot on this week looking for the market rise into the GM announcement. IRE issues being put to bed (for now) are helping the cause. Minis stopped so far at ... wait .. wait .. here it comes ... 91.87 resistance. Close enough for my 92 target.

Now comes the big question. Is this enough to have ended the big 4 corrective and to light the POMO fuse for more strength, or is there still more downside to come. With the position of the 60m indicators and the diagonal resistance lines that will break this morning that we have been pointing to maybe a bigger pop is in store. The bond markets and commods are not going away. Dollar is coming off the resistance we have been pointing to for a couple of weeks and has fallen to a support level. What happens here is anyone's guess. Tight range between support and resistance.

Minis - At the upper diagonal resistance for this fall. Can it crack or do we go down for 5?

Dollar - Has resistance become support? The green diagonal is LT resistance and if that cracks the dollar will have broken out.
blog comments powered by Disqus