November 30, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Looking at the financials - Increasingly interested in the Wikileaks possible release and if it even makes it past go. Protecting the financials may prove to be more important than the military and government secrets.

UNG 4hr - still looks weak. Maybe it makes it's way to channel support near 5.60. If the daily MACD bear crosses it could get worse (S Sto already crossed). 

Except for the 24th it has been fall and base, fall and base. Only yesterday did it get a continuation and Friday was the only day here that did not get a ramp to regain losses. Right now we're still dealing with a market setting lower highs, but the lower lows have apparently (for now) stopped. Bears need for 73 to get taken out. If price should take out the 90 high from yesterday I would be concerned as a bear. Get really concerned if the 99 high is taken out. Till then they still have the ball. 

What could help a rally here? The dollar topping out of course. Here it is possibly at the top if the channel range. Does the dollar need to backtest the busted diagonal? Is it too expended too fast? Something to ponder.

SPX 2h working chart - Lower BB support keeping things up for now.  Concerning the bears should be the whipsaw in many time frames this AM. SPX apparently was really wanting to turn yesterday.

/YG possible HnS. Gray diagonal is LT resistance.Two green are LT wedge boundary lines.

China markets screwing with the system, the euro finally under 130 and a big data morning with Case-Shiller at 9:00, Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer confidence at 10:00. Auto sales tomorrow with APD, ISM, construction and petrol.

EUR/USD getting hammered and thru support. We have been looking at this turn for some time and it finally appears the markets are going to react to the contagion. Next stop 26.
AUD/JPY correlation has lost some of it's magic, but it may kick back in here as this pair has met resistance as well.
SPX daily - 50dma at 77 and the lower BB at 70 are key support levels here.
Index comparison - I don't expect the financials to play catch up this time. On shorter time frames the indexes while correlated in movements are very dispersed which is somewhat unusual.

Minis were as high as 1188 last night and as low as 73 this morning. That is another big drop just like yesterday. Plenty of POMO to go around and the power of POMO was seen to be alive and well yesterday. Key SPX level is 73.
 
More to come after the open.
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