July 21, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

2:02 - UPDATE - On the minis (range is dead as we all know) 81 is the Mendoza line. LOL - apparently all Ben had to do was say "hello" and the markets reacted. 30m still trending down

UPDATE - From ZH - "The sudden bout of market weakness has been attributed to a large ES Put order in the process of being executed. We will keep an eye out on the most active options and confirm if and when this hits the tape. Indeed the tape so far does show a preponderance of various Puts (top 6 contracts by volume are all bearish) with the 700 strikes showing up consistently, as someone continues to put on major bets on a large swoon in the market."


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rumor-large-es-put-order-pushing-market-lower

10:42 - UPDATE -  told you the 60m minis were not pretty (the 30m looks worse). Price is battling with the 25ma and the 200ma and backtesting the green LT TL all while the lower BB looms at 75. You can see the blue TL above (that is a ST trend) and then the yellow dashed which is an updated or adjusted LT TL. So, the question becomes does it whipsaw the indicators at support here or will it break down and run to the lower SL. So, price appears to be trapped with downward pressure. That is a pretty good reversal candle. Keep an eye on that 200ma (and when Ben speaks at 2:00).


UPDATE - Looking at YHOO - 
Weekly 5yr - Dead cat bounce or worse? Black or blue TL? Violent swings are all you get with this puppy recently. It appears if you miss the week it moves, you miss it. Few sustained moves. 
Daily - If that is a H&S the target is near 8.
 30m - Looks like it fell to support. I'd say it is due for a bounce, but the short play will be in order soon. Guess what, the SC PnF target is right in line with my H&S target at $8.5.Note that YHOO is setting up a larger inverse H&S where this breakdown will be the RS, thus, at the bottom you can load up and hold on for a while, that may be a year or two away though.

Like I said on the big blog - the 30 and 60m minis are topping with divergences - THUS - those trump the indexes and thus my down call at the open. Seems to be working like a charm (so far). Don't get to excited about the downside move just yet. We have to see what the PSX indicators are gonna do. the 30 and 60 are just getting overbought now. the danger of more upside exists. Not sure how high with that TL resistance everyone sees. My 30m SPX wedge should experience a throwover so be prepared. How much? Don't know yet. GL!

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