July 14, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

VWAP update - When the upper BB and the upper (or lower) VWAP band cross it is usually (usually I said) a great turn signal as price has traveled so far from the mean on two fronts. So in this 30m /ES chart you see minis at the close yesterday had pushed up to the upper VWAP band (sky blue) then revert to the middle VWAP and sat hard as the lower BB is there as well. Norte the MACD did not bottom till VWAP was hit. this is not fool proof, but it is a tool I use that allows me (in normal (LOL) market conditions to nail some reversals or if momo is really there to chase some runs to a pretty reliable target. One other point is that the half (upper or lower) it starts the day on it will usually stay there. Charts are from Thinkorswim.

UPDATE - It went right around my target box, those bastards.  Sticking with the DOW  - I think the resistance line is seen here. If it spikes one more time the red line should max it out. The reversal should be swift to the 220 range. Support level is near 185. Black support is cracked and when that blue line goes it will be on. 10,100 should be easily in the picture I would think.The danger lies in the earnings reports that are countering the bad data. DOW is now moving in 20 point chunks.

UPDATE - I think the DOW has had enough. Let's see if I can hit the orange box?
Just missed it - darn.

UPDATE - INTC took it to the max. I think they went for all they could get in one push. Yesterday I said that Red TL near 22.11 and it got to 22.25. Gotta love TA. It should fall right back to where it came from. The island bottom (gray rectangle) it left gets closed at 21.70.




Good morning. See the big blog for the post. I think this will only be a corrective of a larger move up to possibly 1140. Form will tell us what is happening. Tomorrow is going to be wild an woolly.

Minis 1m, have traded all the way below their VWAP and have fallen below the upper resistance diagonal. Let's see what happens when the minis hit 83. If they crack that then 64 should be in the cards. 38% retrace is 62.

B wave retrace to 60's and then C=A to 1140's? Comments? I don't like the 40's but that is what it would measure to. Maybe it is some sort of ZZ as Incarnate says which I like better.

I'll have charts later.



GL!
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