UPDATE - Minis hitting resistance line. If it holds good for bears. If it cracks very bullish. VWAP on the minis is 1076 so market is overbought and should correct.
Like I said on the blog if we crack 1090 then the 200ma is the next target at 1111.
Let me get the 30m charts in order. I'm looking to trade the pullback and then get long just like yesterday.
Looking at AA. Any plays there? It is oversold on a daily basis and the daily indicators are climbing. I think you are getting news driven emotion trades here cause if the price of aluminum is so darn important for earnings combined with some sort of real demand then there is no reason for this pop. They lowered estimates from 16 cents to 11 cents (31%) so they could get a beat of 2 cents. Poppycock, I say. Bottom line is I will be looking to short this puppy on any market weakness (which may take some time). There is an upper TL that will cause resistance near 12 now. It is also closing in on NT resistance at 11.75.
UPDATE - BofA Looking At Alcoa And Not Liking What It Sees, Cuts EPS, Keeps Sell Rating
Hmm. Wasn't what I expected. Lol!!
ReplyDeleteYou are bout to get your wish I think. See other blog.
ReplyDeleteTime to short? 30m minis MACD has not crossed yet, but if this 30m reversal candle holds the time may be right. (well at least till the INTC rumor driven volumeless ramp this afternoon). I'm in cash but looking for a short scalp entry.
ReplyDeleteWe got the higher high I wanted yesterday to set nice divergences on the RUT and others. Now we have to be patient and wait on the turn.
ReplyDeleteKey words Shanky: Emotional Markets.
ReplyDeleteSun just went active on NOAA.
Appreciate your patience for the turn Shanky
In the past this marked volatile collapses.
Just bot some FAZ calls and DIA puts cheap.
Regards*All
Somebody just bot over 10,000 calls on IVN Jan 17.50...
ReplyDeletePosting this so I get email notifications.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.n3kl.org/sun/index.html
ReplyDeleteIVN 17.50? 10,000? and it is up $2 TODAY? Fuck that. You gotta guess someone knows something. I have always wanted to exploit the options market's 'tells' on the equities. The insiders come in big and know the SEC or FINRA will not prosecute. Pls get me a link that ID's the most active options daily please.
ReplyDeleteThese waves count like shit. Anyway I do believe we hit a new high or double top then it breaks. If the move yesterday was an example of what to come then I see us putting in a new low on rut below 587 from 7/6. The move since then has been corrective and this is not a new bull market as the hippies in tvland want you to believe.
ReplyDeleteSPX closed the 1092 gap.
ReplyDeleteNASDAQ gap closed and left an island bottom. May be forming a head for a small H&S. every 30m upper BB bust on this run up has generated a nice pullback. It is busted now. Pops are getting weaker and weaker. Look for pullback to 2195 then RS with lower high then breakdown to mid 2160's.
Rut gap is from 636 to 641.5.
Check out the new solar X-ray thingy on the right Rich.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna have to short this thing soon. It has gone balistically nuts today. Divergences are nuts. We may have to wait thru more bullishness as it appears to be setting up a big blow off top that we're in now.
ReplyDeletethe blow off top happens when the divergence lines get busted to the upside and price spikes to really nasty levels. then you go balls deep short. I'll post it when I see it. This is speculation, but what my intuitions say is happening. Hope I'm right LOL.
Another thing - at this rate the dailys will be ramping right on up to the top. that is a good thing. For now, don't fight the trend. The dailys are moving up hard.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the INTC chart Shanky.
ReplyDeleteStock hasn't gone anywhere for a decade.
Order in well under the market for INTC puts on any bounce...
Shanky- I couldn't agree more. New high in and the divergences are absolutely sick!
ReplyDeleteSPX challenging an upper diagonal. This is friggin nuts. this is exactly what I was worried about the earnings ramp on BS. LOL, and we have only had AA. Who cares the China downgraded US debt and Portugal got downgraded and that cons credit and sentiment are at all time lows. this is funny as shit (not really).
ReplyDeleteLike the NOAA link.
ReplyDeleteNotice any jittery energy hitting the markets?
When the geomagnetic goes on yellow or red alert, its all over for the market.
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_xrays.gif?
Re link to most active options, most brokers have one live. ISEE reports after market close:
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header3=true&menu0=true&link1=true
Robert Friedland the IVN promoter who made billions selling ore bodies around
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/12072010/2/biz-finance-battle-brewing-rio-tinto-ivanhoe-poison-pill-thwart.html
Today's Options Market Most Actives.Symbol Last Change (%) Volume
ReplyDeleteSPY 08/21/2010 101.00 P $1.00 -0.25 (-20.00%) 82.3K
IWM 08/21/2010 59.00 P $1.31 -0.30 (-18.63%) 59.9K
SPY 07/17/2010 109.00 C $1.30 +0.52 (66.67%) 41.1K
IWM 08/21/2010 60.00 P $1.56 -0.34 (-17.89%) 33.1K
AAPL 07/17/2010 250.00 C $4.05 -4.70 (-53.71%) 31.2K
IVN 01/22/2011 17.50 C $2.05 +1.20 (141.18%) 30.2K
SPX 08/21/2010 1100.00 P $34.50 -8.00 (-18.82%) 28.9K
SPX 10/16/2010 1100.00 P $57.00 -9.00 (-13.64%) 28.2K
AAPL 07/17/2010 250.00 P $4.50 +3.02 (204.05%) 26.9K
SPY 08/21/2010 103.00 P $1.34 -0.29 (-17.79%) 25.9K
The rut sure is channeling nicely since te gap this morning.
ReplyDeleteRUT at a resistance line, but only half way thru the gap. this is nuts. Sorry I missed the entry this am,. but it never really gave one. My call was solid, down then up, but the down became up sooner that indicated. Sorry I missed it and I'm not chasing it. I'll start speculating about a massive push up to the close. OUCH!
ReplyDeleteDow & SPX futures now selling at a discount to cash, a cautionary tale...
ReplyDeleteRUT chart above. nice catch Rich. It is set up for the kill.
ReplyDeleteAlso RUT.
ReplyDeleteJust put in orders to buy IWM puts below the market...
I have some orders out to try a nibble on SDS.
ReplyDeleteLong SDS at 17.
ReplyDeleteAt times like this it may feel crazy and fearful to go against the ebullient crowd and bullish headlines, so comments here much appreciated to retain balance and center...
ReplyDeleteWill add more on weakness. Might have been impatient on the first entry.
ReplyDeleteIf you want opposing views this is the place to be. LOL, how would you have liked to have had me as a student. HA!
ReplyDeleteCould this be it???
ReplyDeleteMy entry sucks if the 1m reverses.
ReplyDeleteVery close - I think the 1m needs to cycle one more time and that should be it.
ReplyDeleteI got ahead of myself and made a non disciplined entry. I did not check the 1m for where it was in the cycle. that simple thing can make a 5 or 10 cent difference in entry.
ReplyDeleteWow.
ReplyDelete1m spx trying to throw in gaps down. Brought back thru support. Please lawdy let this be the one.
ReplyDeletelong vxx 24.50 15000
ReplyDeleteand drv 32.50 5000
Right now we're hoping the backtests hold and see if this move south is real or not. This is potential bear flag. If not, lord help the shorts.
ReplyDeleteThe question is, do Cramer, who worked with Mafia son hedger Michael Steinhardt, Kudlow, who worked with Cramer, and Maria Bartiroma, whose husband Joel Steinberg worked with Cramer/Steinhardt pump and dump and recruited him to CNBC, have it right that the Baltic Dry index is just down 9 months in a row because there are too many ships?
ReplyDeleteWho are we going to believe, our own eyes, or CNBC mind control?...
DRV target 20:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=drv
Shanky: nice trade as of 1:29 edt.
ReplyDeleteGuess the $64 Trillion question is,
Will it spike into the close or give
up the ghost beforehand?
Inquiring minds need to know...
flat drv 5000 32.90
ReplyDeleteSpike to close is my guess. Manipulators RULE dude. But since SPX thankfully just set a lower low I'm feeling a little better. It is only 2:00. I'm in this trade for a scalp. I will not swing going into tomorrow. To much risk.
ReplyDeleteBruce - Have tight stops. This thing could run away. Tomorrow will be a massively crazy day as earnings and news events will throw it all over the place.
sold 10000 vxx 24.87 bought at 24.50
ReplyDeleteWith Art Cashin, the CNBC Plunge Protection Team is almost complete. All we need is Dennis Kneale, Bob Pisani and the Chicago Tea Bagger to pout the top in...
ReplyDeleteflat sold last 5000 vxx @ 24.85
ReplyDeletemy play money acct for today
ReplyDeleteAccount value $171,040.32 +$7,629.53
Need this to to go up into the close to reload or tommarrow
ReplyDeleteI don't like this spiky action. Considering exiting shorts no matter what technicals say as they control the market.
ReplyDeleteSet stop for penny gain on SDS at 18.
Nice ODA. Obviously I don't trust anyone anymore.
ReplyDeleteActually considering long plays at this time. I'm still short, but trying to stay a step ahead of the manipulation team.
ReplyDeleteVenezuela reserves bigger than Saudi Arabia right on time for a market turn, run and hide...
ReplyDeleteHere's a sodden thot:
ReplyDeleteMaybe all those ships by Costa Rica are getting ready to invade Venezuela and Iran simultaneously.
Now that would be a hat trick...
30m BB and VWAP on the /ES are both near 1080. Boy would that be nice. Daily RSI crosses 70. WOW! Sadly daily MACD still under 0 line. Volume is a little better than yesterday but not by much.
ReplyDeleteSorry for remaining bullish here, but earnings and all plus the fraud are to much for me to ignore. Realism is not a factor.
this forum is different than your blog and i think better in some ways than the blog. quick and to the point here
ReplyDeleteOut of SDS at 18. Had a great trade from 17 to 40, but let it go. Cause I screwed around I missed all the long entries. Still considering a shot at a long. It will be based on the 1 and 5m charts and a lot on speculation they ramp it to the close.
ReplyDeleteSDS now cracking resistance diagonal. You just gotta laugh.
I'll post entry if I do anything.
ODA - This is for trading. Some news bits here and there. All the BS goes on at the other blog. We also have nice tight group that work together well, thus the blog is not advertised or promoted. I will add disqus when I have the time.
ReplyDeleteRUT higher high. LOL.
ReplyDeleteDid miss the Short Opps this morning because I unable to trade for external reasons. Short UNG 7.56 a dream... anyway.
ReplyDeleteDid get long UNG 7.34 and EXIT 7.42 ... now at 7.36 again in minutes! LOL What a ride.
If this were a real and sane market I'd be screaming short here. I recommend nothing but scalps for a while on the short side as they get this BS run out of their system.
ReplyDeleteSee, I screwed around. I should have sold and flopped the SDS to SSO and missed it. My HOPES of a greater fall outweighed what the ST charts were saying. Sure the ST charts looked bearish, but in reality (never mind the divergences that said a fall is or WILL BE coming) the 30m MACD has not crossed.
Also note that UNG 7.30 was hit ... but impossible to trade unless a bid was there waiting.
ReplyDeleteThis is where someone could spot well defined trading bottom or top that it could do lot more money. They are predictable but requires discipline and confidence to spot and trade.
The setup for another NG crash is slowly building IMO. Tomorrow morning might provide another great short OPPS but I'll wait until then to make a move.
If I miss it, no problemo, Short Squeeze Ops will present themselves easy to spot.
In 3 days I have made perfect trades. 100$ each time. I plan to add 100$ each day to my trading account until the world ends or myself.
LOL
what a 5ramp job
ReplyDeleteWow OB. UNG tanked mid day.
ReplyDeleteRUT closes gap on MASSIVE spike to upper TL (the green one in the chart above, not the yellow one).
ReplyDeleteFUCK ME!
ReplyDeleteThis is fucking nuts. I am not saying that because I'm short right now. This thing just keeps on expanding on up. Is that rut gap closed? I can easily count this as the top although that five wave down yesterday is still perplexing to me. It damn sure was impulsive and not corrective.
ReplyDeleteCramer just put the top in,
ReplyDeletesez we've seen the lows for the year
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38203002
Nice trades you guys...
You know what .... I think that the opposite is very likely ... it might time to go long NG I am very tempted to try a long shot for overnight holding. Quite risky though. I could lose while sleeping all my small gains in one single mistakes.
ReplyDeleteI know you are bearish NG... but what are the Charts telling you?
Does this count as capitulation?
ReplyDeleteOk ... draw a downward channel on the Daily Charts starting 14 June on the last gap up.
ReplyDeleteSee. We are at the bottom on the downward channel (impossible to go down yet) Short are cornered. UNG 7.80 quite possible!!
STO is bottoming .. But MACD seems ready for more bearsishness. Nevetheless, thoses are slow to confirm a trend and useless for quick scalp.
Possible no? UNG 7.80? I do not wish nor hope for this to happens but I think that is possible and they'll play it that way.
The postman always rings twice...
ReplyDeleteOB - UNG - did someone say something about 7.30 here recently? HMMM? HMMM?
ReplyDeleteCharts say near term oversold. Hard to argue with that move south there today. That is not a positive. I don't trust a thing. I'd wait for inventories Thursday before you make a play. My thought is that if IF IF IF for some reason earnings come in good UNG will get undeserved sympathy ramp as 'recovery is on' or bottom is in talk (like Rich posted above) may lift it. I hate it though. My only argument against the TA that says turn is that it has ignored solid TA for over a year. So TA says wait right now but a possible buy soon.
Also note the Chart setup is pretty similar to what UNG had end of February. The fall was to fast IMO and need a correction to the top of the downward channel. Right on MA(38) on the 60 minutes Charts. Now at 7.83 but will go down a bit by that time. Something like 7.78, the ultimate top before more bearishness.
ReplyDeletehehe. Please do something, I'm starting to convince myself.
A tropical depression will come up forming overnight. Watch this. LOL
LOL Rich. How bout this - a drop now to form an inverted H&S on the SPX!!!!!! WOOOO HOOOO ramp this bitch!!
ReplyDeleteLook out 200ma!
"OB - UNG - did someone say something about 7.30 here recently? HMMM? HMMM?"
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by that, I don't understand?
Also note the Chart setup is pretty similar to what UNG had START of February. Not END of February. Not the same thing.
we had 7 online earlier - someone is lurkin around LOL.
ReplyDeleteLots of double tops here...
ReplyDeleteRich - Yes. tomorrow is gonna be real interesting with all the economic news and the earnings. should be a wild morning.
ReplyDeleteOB - could have sworn I posted something that said NG would take out 34 and hit the low of 30 before going up. Can't find it.
Gonna try to get disqus before tomorrow.
In cash.
I may start doing a trade or daily summary.
ReplyDeleteToday's would be -
Had a great idea at start - short then long. missed short entry and long never gave clear entry so I sat on my ass most of the day while the indicators jerked off setting divergences that no one could believe. I shorted SDS at 17 (solid entry) rode it to 40 and then proceed to HOPE (yes, just like the election) that this fall would materialize. Well it did not so I rode SDS to 18 and got out subsequently missing the long entry I considered while watching my gains go out the window. Then the ramp came and blew us all away, esp me, cause I knew to be long and was not. The RUT gap that had me so worried got closed in an impressive way. So, I had some solid plans, my intuition was spot on, and I blew it cause ..... ..... I guess cause I played on emotion and not what I knew (thus I missed the long entry). Bottom line is follow momo in a manipulated market pumping before earnings start.
Better luck tomorrow as earnings and economic news will both be flying around. should be a wild morning.
Off to bitch a little at the other blog, but will check back in here.
Thanks for a great day.
OB - could have sworn I posted something that said NG would take out 34 and hit the low of 30 before going up. Can't find it.
ReplyDeleteYes you did!! But I told you at that time that 7.40 did hold and this was something to consider. It went to 7.56 before going to 7.30. This is the point I want to make. Thoses little shot as so important not to miss (or not to be screwed up with). Because it make you lose time (and/or money). So I agree with you NG will crash. But How and When is more important. Otherwise, better stay way. I think that this is also applicable for the markets overall.
Any shot worth to be grabbed and cash in. IMO.
Now long for overnight holdings! Stops at UNG 7.29.
UNG can be traded - I tell you wahat - I'll update my UNG section tonight and we'll get a better grip on it. Maybe I'll do a UNG post at the blog.
ReplyDeleteSPX stops .54 from 1100. LOL. Sucker is up 20 that is TWENTY!
ReplyDeletei have to re chart and digest a bunch of stuff tonight. I am not surprised as the manipulation theme is alive and well esp with earnings fraud coming. My 1090 target got dusted and my 1111 target is next. I called nothing above that and at this time refuse to in protest to the fraud.
Ok just picked some twm up @ $20.47
ReplyDeleteTwm down 7% today !
0.78 retractment is $20.22
Rut has a nice red bar going on right now
ReplyDeleteOk sold for quicky in afterhours @ $20.79
ReplyDeleteSmall gain, but take what I can in this mrkt.
Uszly
Take all comments from here to the new post and we can now use disqus! yea Shanky!
ReplyDeleteAfterhours crazy.
ReplyDeleteJust bought back into twm @ $20.39
uszly
Solar flare centering on earth now.
ReplyDeleteMarkets could get volatile to the downside.
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/index.html
Futures still at discount to cash, -80 on the Dow...
ReplyDelete