Running late as usual in the summer. Does not matter much as today should be mixed unless some whispers come out. 30m SPX is avoidig a bear cross on the MACE and several divergences that are usually very reliable. This has me leaning south but with a nervous posture.As I noted, the gaps above on the RUT and the NASDAQ might want to get filled (or not). Since everything sucks, this could be the big nasty here where the market finally gets away from them. They can't hide how bad things are forever.
VWAP trading and the VWAP bands - More than not it works like a dream.. In this instance on TZA you got a great entry when the lower BB and the lower VWAP band collided with oversold indicators setting divergences down there at 14. Then price reverted to the VWAP (middle sky blue line) and held, but the MACD still had room to run so price ran right up to the upper VWAP band. When price hit the upper BB outside the VWAP band at 63 that was a great point to take some profits but not exit the trade. Basically a $1.49 move. MACD was topping and giving the bear cross there as well. Your next entry (on a typical day) would be when the 1m or 5m indicators cycle thru (depending on the price action of course).
Morning Post 11/22/2024 SPX
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I’m behind on enjoying Xmas. I said it. We only get one shot a year at it.
Don’t waste it. And never forget The reason for the season. Wish someone a
Mer...
7 hours ago
Mandy said investing in Corn and not Porn - damn. Shows where my head is today.
ReplyDeleteShort it. 1m says time to go. 30m may have a little room to climb, but this should be a good place to nibble. Keep stops tight as you can't trust anything these days.
ReplyDeleteQID 18.03. Light not heavy. According to 30m may still be early. Liberal 10 cent stop.
ReplyDelete30m opening are big green candles which gives momo to the bulls, very careful shorting. I want the pullback for a scalp and then may look to get long. We'll have to see how the day plays out.
ReplyDeleteShorties hitting a wall here.
ReplyDeleteTest
ReplyDeleteOkay!! Back in business. I show a fifth wave complete this morning. Looking for at least a 38% retrace of the bull orgy from last week. I made a post last night on the blog showing a 30 min chart. Take heed if you're long out there.
ReplyDeleteThey didn't hit a wall just took a break to eat honey
ReplyDeleteLooks like they tried to juice it this am and get the bulls going, and it may have failed. Lets see what the next two 30m candles say. It is overbought with divergences all over the place.
ReplyDeleteDigging that 03 entry on QID. Sorry I did not go deep.
ReplyDeleteTza 30 min chart:
ReplyDeleteMacd cross and one hell of a bullish candle
RUT 1m bottoming here. Let it cycle back to the top before entering.
ReplyDeletelooks like a possible completed 5 on the RUT. 7 points on the RUT is a good tumble. 1m says it corrects here before further weakness. Will look to add to shorts here in a while.
ReplyDeleteSee VWAP trade above.
ReplyDeleteThis is impressive sell off. LOL, I guess divergences still work.
ReplyDeleteJesus. This bitch just fell off a cliff.
ReplyDeleteOuaisBla here.
ReplyDeleteOK. What I see is something like 1040 in two days.
Good point. Spx hasn't gotten cranked up yet. When it does, look out below!
ReplyDeleteOut of QID at 40. Might go for a TNA scalp. This thing is really oversold today (deservedly so). OB I like 40 that is some good support.
ReplyDeleteI will be looking to re enter shorts and hope I did not just screw up with the exit. I think it may pop enough to get a better reentry. Might be getting a bit aggressive, but hey...
1074 a well designed intraday top IMO. Will not hit 1075 ...
ReplyDeleteRut looks toppy on 1 min. Good entry IMO.
ReplyDeleteHighs are safe and the bulls are really struggling to get momo at this reversal point.
ReplyDeleteNot yet INC, that 5m chart needs to run to the top and my TNA scal from .03 needs to run some. LOL.
ReplyDeleteMight be hitting the lunchtime blues here.
ReplyDeleteDescending the trend with GO0G and Q4 puts.
ReplyDeleteZH has a piece today about analysts more bullish than ever on earnings estimates...
The challenge here may be not closing shorts too soon...
ReplyDeleteStill with Ben puts also...
ReplyDelete1077 is still possible up in few minutes ... but that will be the very top to short IMO.
ReplyDeletesaw that on ZH - funny as hell isn't it.
ReplyDeleteZH also re Baltic Dry 32nd sequential drop, longest in 9 years. This may be the Titanic on a giant methane bubble with US Navy having reportedly evacuated ships and marines from AL, FL, LA, MS Gulf. Meanwhile, XOM takeover of BP rumour the great distraction...
ReplyDeleteNow that the moon is no longer blocking the sun, the giant flare in the NE corner of the sun has a good shot at earth disrupting communications...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.n3kl.org/sun/index.html
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2010/leverett120710.html
ReplyDeletePeople trading headlines may get burned or blown up...
ReplyDeleteNG comments:
ReplyDeleteUNG about to hit 7.41 or 7.40. Will struggle to not break it, but my guess it that they will break it before 2:30 ...
Ah 1077 incoming!! Get ready IMO :) <- But be careful either!!!
ReplyDeleteout of TNA at 70.
ReplyDeleteNo entries till later unless market presents something. That was two really solid trades for your Shanky this am. May have left TNA to early, but that is OK. Two solid winners to kick off the day make me happy.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good entry for TZA on a 1m, but lunchtime and 5m is not there, so I will sit this one out. Wait till later to find a new entry.
ReplyDeleteScrew it, gonna take a small order of TZA if it fills. Filled at 87. Don;t like it. Going against my thoughts, but following an overbought and rolling over 1m MACD. Don;t follow this one. Like spitting in Superman's face here I think.
ReplyDeleteWant to see if RUT will fill that gap at 620.
ReplyDeleteI think TZA is OK. They are about to let it 10 75 IMO.
ReplyDeleteHum ... little impulsive move up is starting at 1076. 1080 (again??) is Up target for this IMO. Short sellers not agressive enough and leave control to Up manipulator.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.economist.com/node/16536898?story_id=16536898
ReplyDeleteLOL, glad I went small with that TZA call. I hate lunchtime plays and esp one's that I know I should never make. Lessons learned I guess. Gonna hold it, for now.
ReplyDeleteI submit debt usury is a bigger danger to the USA than Iran...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38205194
ReplyDeleteIn NG World, someone is about to get cornered. I suspect that MA(20) (7.48) on the 60 min UNG charts is the resistance like it was use to be. No Hurricane in sight. Breaching 7.48, I'll have to let go my shorts there and grab them later(HND).
ReplyDeleteIran is a non factor.
ReplyDeleteNice post on the Economist. thanks for sharing. Bottom line is that the global elite's plan for world domination reqiures the EU, thus it can not bust. If it does, we're in much better shape than I thought.
I see early sign of craking on both SPX and UNG ... Still holding shorts on NG through HND.
ReplyDeleteNG near term shorts should be safe. Long term I stick with my 3.25 target area. There is ZERO demand and the double dip with zero manufacturing will drive prices down. They have been shutting down production to limit supply and that is not even working. NG is a nightmare.
ReplyDeleteHere we go, UNG is falling, have knocked its head to MA(20) on the 60 minutes charts. Like a clockwork.
ReplyDelete3 of c of 2 (degree unknown) on RUT 1 mom chart off the top this am. Big red bars once this zz completes.
ReplyDeleteSorry I got out of my TNA. Day is playing out like I called at the beginning. Got the down play and now up. Digesting when to play the turn down.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Inc - that looks good. I'm looking for short entry as AA whisper numbers should begin leaking soon. 30m SPX putting in a big black candle here. Maybe she can go ahead and turn. A lower high would be nice, yet a higher high would be sweet.
ReplyDeleteIf conservative then wait for below 620 on Rut to enter short
ReplyDeleteOB, that $682 low on UNG may get tested if not busted.
ReplyDeleteOk folks. I'm off to a meeting that will last past the close. Good luck out there! I'm holding on to my tza based on my count above.
ReplyDeleteAlert!!!! Truncated 5th. Down we go imo
ReplyDeleteI think you are right. 5 and 15m are both headed south now. 30m is still cycling south. I'm still in cash right now. Looking for some sort of entry, preferably short.
ReplyDeleteTHE BIG PROBLEM is the AUD/JPY pair and it's 30m is rather bullish. that could be a big deal if that pair is driving the markets.
Now that 2:30 retrace out of the way, things could get interesting to the downside...
ReplyDeleteShanky,
ReplyDeleteregarding UNG I agree that a bottom as yet to be found. But, the way its gonna happens (How and When) is very important.
I am now able to day trade this commodity in a perfect way. I did cover my shorts at 2H30 when the price was the lowest today. I did bought few cents before the higher price too.
I can flip at will either on U and D. I have a very strong algorithm to do so. And I have learn to trust ther Charts to change my Bias and not to hold against the trend. Even if it doesn't make sense.
So I don't care if UNG will finally break 6.82 or not. I will know when it will happens when I'll be able to read it from the Charts. So far, UNG 7.40 is holding. Will check tomorrow how thing evolve and I will know which side to pick.
Just keep watching production and inventory. Usage is horrendous and with the standard 70% consumption by corporations being destroyed by the lack of (now and future) demand, there is nowhere else for price to go but down. I'm guessing the .34 low will be busted.
ReplyDeleteRegarning NG:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/after-two-repeated-court-losses-obama-issue-new-and-improved-offshore-drilling-moratorium
Something to consider if UNG 7.40 will hold or not. I will go for the U side tomorrow if the Charts tell me to do so.
"Just keep watching production and inventory."
ReplyDeleteFor sure!! :)
http://intelligencepress.com/features/intcx/gas/intcx_gas_point.emb?pointcode=ICESLAHH
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
I'll know what to do tomorrow morning. In cash for now.
"I'm guessing the .34 low will be busted. "
ReplyDeleteNo more guessing for me. Only trading. I trade only when I know what to do.
Shutting it down for today, see you in the morning. Thanks for the views and commentary. Couple of really good calls today. See if we can get more tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-12/apple-s-iphone-4-fails-to-get-consumer-reports-recommendation.html
ReplyDeletehey guys, i may not comment here for a bit until i get the feel of the DS again... also, i prefer to gamble in VIX > 28 area since i hav under 25k to manage and $7 trades.
ReplyDeletei did notice the VIX 2nd test of 200-dma today. if it breaks down, zzzz..... but likely this low-vol ramp job is just that (there's already been direct injection by Swiss and Japan CB's in this rally since SP1010).
oh, since i had to use my goog acc't to post, i'm knowledgedriven on shanky's blogspot. jono :)
ReplyDeletebtw, shanky, were u trying to get Disqus on here?
KD- working on disqus. Just have not had time or strength to get it done.
ReplyDeleteGuys I have a good count where the action today was a 3-3-3-3-3 ED c wave from 1pm est until right before the close. I will post a chart here later tonight to show. I will admit I was early on my third wave count of c but it still means the same thing - the market is going south. This is of course on the Russell 2000 as that is what I'm trading.
ReplyDeleteOk well here is the chart I promised.
ReplyDeleteAs you can see the primary count I have is that Minute 2 of Minor 3 on the RUT is done. Here is the reasoning behind this count. I am counting this previous five waves as the C wave of a flat. The first wave, labeled black ‘i’, was a 31.52% retracement from the high of 631.35. That does not seem like a corrective ‘a’ of B to me. (B waves don’t have deep retraces and we have another 5 down to go!)
I have listed the Fib Retracements in the upper left hand corner from the low on 7/6 of 587.67. 614.66 is the 38.2% retrace from that low and the ‘i’ was at 617.58. You be the judge on the move to 617.58.
The ED for the c (circle) on the chart ended with a little bit of throwover. For a clearer chart, see the link below. After the ‘5’ of that c wave was hit, then the plummet started.
The target for ‘iii’ is around 602. This is 1.618 the length of ‘i’. This would set up nicely if at the end of this five wave structure we broke the 587.67 low. Notice how the fifth wave of ‘i’ was an extended wave. Fractal nature could mean that we would have a fifth wave extension on ‘v’.
Of course all this is blown to shit if we gap up tomorrow, but I am thinking we will gap down. A third wave tends to have a violent move and I do expect a gap in the morning.
If we happen to have the alternative count of (a) as seen on the chart, then the black ‘i’ becomes an ‘a’ and the ‘ii’ becomes a ‘b’. The end of the ‘iii’ would change to a ‘c’ and would have the most likely ending points:
For ‘c’ = 61.8% of ‘a, that would be around 615.5 (close to the 38% retrace from 7/6)
For ‘c’ = ‘a’, that would be around 610 (close to the 50% retrace from 7/6)
So, the permabear (salmon for sale!!) has me labeling this chart as a five wave move down with an alternate corrective wave count. The bottom line is that we are down tomorrow for those short term traders and depending on the downside price action, check the Fibs from 7/6 to make your decision if this is a 5 wave or 3 wave move.
And for the TA to back up this count: When have you seen so much negative divergence on a 1 minute chart?? Usually the indicators are only good for 5 minutes at the most. These divergences need not to be discarded!
(I believe a 5 wave move, but what waver isn’t wrong at times???)
All comments are always welcomed!!
Thanks,
Incarnate
http://screencast.com/t/NmU0YzA3NjM
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s202994615]&disp=P
Ok this blog doesn't like the 1 minute feed from stock charts so go to Shanky's blog, and look at his $RUT 1 Min chart to see a clean version!!
ReplyDeleteIts not nice to hide from DADDY!!!!!!
ReplyDelete