July 12, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Running late as usual in the summer. Does not matter much as today should be mixed unless some whispers come out. 30m SPX is avoidig a bear cross on the MACE and several divergences that are usually very reliable. This has me leaning south but with a nervous posture.As I noted, the gaps above on the RUT and the NASDAQ might want to get filled (or not). Since everything sucks, this could be the big nasty here where the market finally gets away from them. They can't hide how bad things are forever.

 VWAP trading and the VWAP bands - More than not it works like a dream.. In this instance on TZA you got a great entry when the lower BB and the lower VWAP band collided with oversold indicators setting divergences down there at 14. Then price reverted to the VWAP (middle sky blue line) and held, but the MACD still had room to run so price ran right up to the upper VWAP band. When price hit the upper BB outside the VWAP band at 63 that was a great point to take some profits but not exit the trade. Basically a $1.49 move. MACD was topping and giving the bear cross there as well. Your next entry (on a typical day) would be when the 1m or 5m indicators cycle thru (depending on the price action of course).
Posted by Shanky at 9:32 AM

74 comments:

  1. Shanky7/12/10, 9:48 AM

    Mandy said investing in Corn and not Porn - damn. Shows where my head is today.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Shanky7/12/10, 9:52 AM

    Short it. 1m says time to go. 30m may have a little room to climb, but this should be a good place to nibble. Keep stops tight as you can't trust anything these days.

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  3. Shanky7/12/10, 9:57 AM

    QID 18.03. Light not heavy. According to 30m may still be early. Liberal 10 cent stop.

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  4. Shanky7/12/10, 10:01 AM

    30m opening are big green candles which gives momo to the bulls, very careful shorting. I want the pullback for a scalp and then may look to get long. We'll have to see how the day plays out.

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  5. Shanky7/12/10, 10:17 AM

    Shorties hitting a wall here.

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  6. Incarnate7/12/10, 10:19 AM

    Test

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  7. Incarnate7/12/10, 10:23 AM

    Okay!! Back in business. I show a fifth wave complete this morning. Looking for at least a 38% retrace of the bull orgy from last week. I made a post last night on the blog showing a 30 min chart. Take heed if you're long out there.

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  8. Incarnate7/12/10, 10:26 AM

    They didn't hit a wall just took a break to eat honey

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  9. Shanky7/12/10, 10:28 AM

    Looks like they tried to juice it this am and get the bulls going, and it may have failed. Lets see what the next two 30m candles say. It is overbought with divergences all over the place.

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  10. Shanky7/12/10, 10:32 AM

    Digging that 03 entry on QID. Sorry I did not go deep.

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  11. Incarnate7/12/10, 10:32 AM

    Tza 30 min chart:

    Macd cross and one hell of a bullish candle

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  12. Shanky7/12/10, 10:33 AM

    RUT 1m bottoming here. Let it cycle back to the top before entering.

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  13. Shanky7/12/10, 10:36 AM

    looks like a possible completed 5 on the RUT. 7 points on the RUT is a good tumble. 1m says it corrects here before further weakness. Will look to add to shorts here in a while.

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  14. Shanky7/12/10, 10:47 AM

    See VWAP trade above.

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  15. Shanky7/12/10, 11:03 AM

    This is impressive sell off. LOL, I guess divergences still work.

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  16. Incarnate7/12/10, 11:13 AM

    Jesus. This bitch just fell off a cliff.

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  17. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 11:15 AM

    OuaisBla here.

    OK. What I see is something like 1040 in two days.

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  18. Incarnate7/12/10, 11:18 AM

    Good point. Spx hasn't gotten cranked up yet. When it does, look out below!

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  19. Shanky7/12/10, 11:23 AM

    Out of QID at 40. Might go for a TNA scalp. This thing is really oversold today (deservedly so). OB I like 40 that is some good support.

    I will be looking to re enter shorts and hope I did not just screw up with the exit. I think it may pop enough to get a better reentry. Might be getting a bit aggressive, but hey...

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  20. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 11:39 AM

    1074 a well designed intraday top IMO. Will not hit 1075 ...

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  21. Incarnate7/12/10, 11:44 AM

    Rut looks toppy on 1 min. Good entry IMO.

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  22. Shanky7/12/10, 11:44 AM

    Highs are safe and the bulls are really struggling to get momo at this reversal point.

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  23. Shanky7/12/10, 11:45 AM

    Not yet INC, that 5m chart needs to run to the top and my TNA scal from .03 needs to run some. LOL.

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  24. Shanky7/12/10, 11:46 AM

    Might be hitting the lunchtime blues here.

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  25. Anonymous7/12/10, 11:53 AM

    Descending the trend with GO0G and Q4 puts.
    ZH has a piece today about analysts more bullish than ever on earnings estimates...

    ReplyDelete
  26. Anonymous7/12/10, 11:55 AM

    The challenge here may be not closing shorts too soon...

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  27. Anonymous7/12/10, 11:56 AM

    Still with Ben puts also...

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  28. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 11:56 AM

    1077 is still possible up in few minutes ... but that will be the very top to short IMO.

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  29. Shanky7/12/10, 11:57 AM

    saw that on ZH - funny as hell isn't it.

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  30. Anonymous7/12/10, 11:59 AM

    ZH also re Baltic Dry 32nd sequential drop, longest in 9 years. This may be the Titanic on a giant methane bubble with US Navy having reportedly evacuated ships and marines from AL, FL, LA, MS Gulf. Meanwhile, XOM takeover of BP rumour the great distraction...

    ReplyDelete
  31. Anonymous7/12/10, 12:02 PM

    Now that the moon is no longer blocking the sun, the giant flare in the NE corner of the sun has a good shot at earth disrupting communications...
    http://www.n3kl.org/sun/index.html

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  32. Anonymous7/12/10, 12:07 PM

    http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2010/leverett120710.html

    ReplyDelete
  33. Anonymous7/12/10, 12:09 PM

    People trading headlines may get burned or blown up...

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  34. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 12:12 PM

    NG comments:

    UNG about to hit 7.41 or 7.40. Will struggle to not break it, but my guess it that they will break it before 2:30 ...

    ReplyDelete
  35. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 12:14 PM

    Ah 1077 incoming!! Get ready IMO :) <- But be careful either!!!

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  36. Shanky7/12/10, 12:16 PM

    out of TNA at 70.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Shanky7/12/10, 12:18 PM

    No entries till later unless market presents something. That was two really solid trades for your Shanky this am. May have left TNA to early, but that is OK. Two solid winners to kick off the day make me happy.

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  38. Shanky7/12/10, 12:20 PM

    This is a good entry for TZA on a 1m, but lunchtime and 5m is not there, so I will sit this one out. Wait till later to find a new entry.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Shanky7/12/10, 12:25 PM

    Screw it, gonna take a small order of TZA if it fills. Filled at 87. Don;t like it. Going against my thoughts, but following an overbought and rolling over 1m MACD. Don;t follow this one. Like spitting in Superman's face here I think.

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  40. Shanky7/12/10, 12:28 PM

    Want to see if RUT will fill that gap at 620.

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  41. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 12:30 PM

    I think TZA is OK. They are about to let it 10 75 IMO.

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  42. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 12:39 PM

    Hum ... little impulsive move up is starting at 1076. 1080 (again??) is Up target for this IMO. Short sellers not agressive enough and leave control to Up manipulator.

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  43. Anonymous7/12/10, 12:42 PM

    http://www.economist.com/node/16536898?story_id=16536898

    ReplyDelete
  44. Shanky7/12/10, 12:43 PM

    LOL, glad I went small with that TZA call. I hate lunchtime plays and esp one's that I know I should never make. Lessons learned I guess. Gonna hold it, for now.

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  45. Anonymous7/12/10, 12:45 PM

    I submit debt usury is a bigger danger to the USA than Iran...

    ReplyDelete
  46. Anonymous7/12/10, 12:48 PM

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/38205194

    ReplyDelete
  47. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 12:49 PM

    In NG World, someone is about to get cornered. I suspect that MA(20) (7.48) on the 60 min UNG charts is the resistance like it was use to be. No Hurricane in sight. Breaching 7.48, I'll have to let go my shorts there and grab them later(HND).

    ReplyDelete
  48. Shanky7/12/10, 12:49 PM

    Iran is a non factor.

    Nice post on the Economist. thanks for sharing. Bottom line is that the global elite's plan for world domination reqiures the EU, thus it can not bust. If it does, we're in much better shape than I thought.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 12:59 PM

    I see early sign of craking on both SPX and UNG ... Still holding shorts on NG through HND.

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  50. Shanky7/12/10, 1:03 PM

    NG near term shorts should be safe. Long term I stick with my 3.25 target area. There is ZERO demand and the double dip with zero manufacturing will drive prices down. They have been shutting down production to limit supply and that is not even working. NG is a nightmare.

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  51. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 2:00 PM

    Here we go, UNG is falling, have knocked its head to MA(20) on the 60 minutes charts. Like a clockwork.

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  52. Incarnate7/12/10, 2:05 PM

    3 of c of 2 (degree unknown) on RUT 1 mom chart off the top this am. Big red bars once this zz completes.

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  53. Shanky7/12/10, 2:07 PM

    Sorry I got out of my TNA. Day is playing out like I called at the beginning. Got the down play and now up. Digesting when to play the turn down.

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  54. Shanky7/12/10, 2:10 PM

    Yeah, Inc - that looks good. I'm looking for short entry as AA whisper numbers should begin leaking soon. 30m SPX putting in a big black candle here. Maybe she can go ahead and turn. A lower high would be nice, yet a higher high would be sweet.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Incarnate7/12/10, 2:12 PM

    If conservative then wait for below 620 on Rut to enter short

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  56. Shanky7/12/10, 2:12 PM

    OB, that $682 low on UNG may get tested if not busted.

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  57. Incarnate7/12/10, 2:18 PM

    Ok folks. I'm off to a meeting that will last past the close. Good luck out there! I'm holding on to my tza based on my count above.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Incarnate7/12/10, 2:24 PM

    Alert!!!! Truncated 5th. Down we go imo

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  59. Shanky7/12/10, 2:30 PM

    I think you are right. 5 and 15m are both headed south now. 30m is still cycling south. I'm still in cash right now. Looking for some sort of entry, preferably short.

    THE BIG PROBLEM is the AUD/JPY pair and it's 30m is rather bullish. that could be a big deal if that pair is driving the markets.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Anonymous7/12/10, 2:36 PM

    Now that 2:30 retrace out of the way, things could get interesting to the downside...

    ReplyDelete
  61. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 3:03 PM

    Shanky,

    regarding UNG I agree that a bottom as yet to be found. But, the way its gonna happens (How and When) is very important.

    I am now able to day trade this commodity in a perfect way. I did cover my shorts at 2H30 when the price was the lowest today. I did bought few cents before the higher price too.

    I can flip at will either on U and D. I have a very strong algorithm to do so. And I have learn to trust ther Charts to change my Bias and not to hold against the trend. Even if it doesn't make sense.

    So I don't care if UNG will finally break 6.82 or not. I will know when it will happens when I'll be able to read it from the Charts. So far, UNG 7.40 is holding. Will check tomorrow how thing evolve and I will know which side to pick.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Shanky7/12/10, 3:13 PM

    Just keep watching production and inventory. Usage is horrendous and with the standard 70% consumption by corporations being destroyed by the lack of (now and future) demand, there is nowhere else for price to go but down. I'm guessing the .34 low will be busted.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 3:22 PM

    Regarning NG:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/after-two-repeated-court-losses-obama-issue-new-and-improved-offshore-drilling-moratorium

    Something to consider if UNG 7.40 will hold or not. I will go for the U side tomorrow if the Charts tell me to do so.

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  64. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 3:25 PM

    "Just keep watching production and inventory."

    For sure!! :)

    http://intelligencepress.com/features/intcx/gas/intcx_gas_point.emb?pointcode=ICESLAHH

    http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

    I'll know what to do tomorrow morning. In cash for now.

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  65. Johnny Ouais7/12/10, 3:43 PM

    "I'm guessing the .34 low will be busted. "

    No more guessing for me. Only trading. I trade only when I know what to do.

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  66. Shanky7/12/10, 3:44 PM

    Shutting it down for today, see you in the morning. Thanks for the views and commentary. Couple of really good calls today. See if we can get more tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Anonymous7/12/10, 3:53 PM

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-12/apple-s-iphone-4-fails-to-get-consumer-reports-recommendation.html

    ReplyDelete
  68. Unknown7/12/10, 4:04 PM

    hey guys, i may not comment here for a bit until i get the feel of the DS again... also, i prefer to gamble in VIX > 28 area since i hav under 25k to manage and $7 trades.

    i did notice the VIX 2nd test of 200-dma today. if it breaks down, zzzz..... but likely this low-vol ramp job is just that (there's already been direct injection by Swiss and Japan CB's in this rally since SP1010).

    ReplyDelete
  69. Unknown7/12/10, 4:07 PM

    oh, since i had to use my goog acc't to post, i'm knowledgedriven on shanky's blogspot. jono :)

    btw, shanky, were u trying to get Disqus on here?

    ReplyDelete
  70. Shanky7/12/10, 5:26 PM

    KD- working on disqus. Just have not had time or strength to get it done.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Incarnate7/12/10, 5:34 PM

    Guys I have a good count where the action today was a 3-3-3-3-3 ED c wave from 1pm est until right before the close. I will post a chart here later tonight to show. I will admit I was early on my third wave count of c but it still means the same thing - the market is going south. This is of course on the Russell 2000 as that is what I'm trading.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Incarnate7/12/10, 9:28 PM

    Ok well here is the chart I promised.

    As you can see the primary count I have is that Minute 2 of Minor 3 on the RUT is done. Here is the reasoning behind this count. I am counting this previous five waves as the C wave of a flat. The first wave, labeled black ‘i’, was a 31.52% retracement from the high of 631.35. That does not seem like a corrective ‘a’ of B to me. (B waves don’t have deep retraces and we have another 5 down to go!)

    I have listed the Fib Retracements in the upper left hand corner from the low on 7/6 of 587.67. 614.66 is the 38.2% retrace from that low and the ‘i’ was at 617.58. You be the judge on the move to 617.58.

    The ED for the c (circle) on the chart ended with a little bit of throwover. For a clearer chart, see the link below. After the ‘5’ of that c wave was hit, then the plummet started.

    The target for ‘iii’ is around 602. This is 1.618 the length of ‘i’. This would set up nicely if at the end of this five wave structure we broke the 587.67 low. Notice how the fifth wave of ‘i’ was an extended wave. Fractal nature could mean that we would have a fifth wave extension on ‘v’.

    Of course all this is blown to shit if we gap up tomorrow, but I am thinking we will gap down. A third wave tends to have a violent move and I do expect a gap in the morning.

    If we happen to have the alternative count of (a) as seen on the chart, then the black ‘i’ becomes an ‘a’ and the ‘ii’ becomes a ‘b’. The end of the ‘iii’ would change to a ‘c’ and would have the most likely ending points:

    For ‘c’ = 61.8% of ‘a, that would be around 615.5 (close to the 38% retrace from 7/6)
    For ‘c’ = ‘a’, that would be around 610 (close to the 50% retrace from 7/6)

    So, the permabear (salmon for sale!!) has me labeling this chart as a five wave move down with an alternate corrective wave count. The bottom line is that we are down tomorrow for those short term traders and depending on the downside price action, check the Fibs from 7/6 to make your decision if this is a 5 wave or 3 wave move.

    And for the TA to back up this count: When have you seen so much negative divergence on a 1 minute chart?? Usually the indicators are only good for 5 minutes at the most. These divergences need not to be discarded!

    (I believe a 5 wave move, but what waver isn’t wrong at times???)

    All comments are always welcomed!!

    Thanks,

    Incarnate

    http://screencast.com/t/NmU0YzA3NjM

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s202994615]&disp=P

    ReplyDelete
  73. Incarnate7/12/10, 9:30 PM

    Ok this blog doesn't like the 1 minute feed from stock charts so go to Shanky's blog, and look at his $RUT 1 Min chart to see a clean version!!

    ReplyDelete
  74. onedumbass7/12/10, 10:41 PM

    Its not nice to hide from DADDY!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete

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