Surreal Macabre Circus Is Now In Session: Stocks Surge In Week When Lipper Reports $11.6 Billion In Equity Fund Outflows - Rigged deck my friends.
I have to update and digest some charts this am. Not sure that will do any good in this rigged market. QE II may get announced today or they will hold it till the market starts to tank again. Remember they will hold and time statements to effect the market. this way the PPT can save some cash. the bogus stress tests in the EU are proving the same as ours did, they are nothing but a dog and pony show that hold no truths. Not sure about the coming eclipse.
The quick assessment - we're still oversold on a daily basis ant trying to turn up (I still hold to my 1190 SPX first target and have considered an 1111 second target. The 60m is getting toppy. The 30m (my favorite) should generate a sell signal today. If that is so this run could be over and the corrective done. I'm leaning to stick with the downside momo and negating upside action. Upside plays now are fighting the overall trend (just like trying to short the market before April highs) very dangerous, but they can be profitable with the right entry. 15m is rolling over.
That said, I'll be looking for some downside action today that is ither gonna be a simple corrective of this ST trend up or this is the last exit before a really woolly ride down.
I'll be back with more later.
Right now looks like the 5m is rolling over so we may be trending down here. I might jump on for a short scalp I'll post a comment if I do.
SPX 30m - cracked the blue support line and now the pink dashed is next. Divergences are clear and indicators are trending down.
Possible inverse H&S on RUT. Just saying it is a possibility in this rigged game, OR tht wedge could just break down as well. Pick your poison. That gap looms just above.
Lol I'm headed to the family land to do some large mouth fishing right now. Lol on the road right now. The tell on tza is the 30 min macd None of the rest makes sense. Take a look and I think you'll agree.
ReplyDeleteDude - the 30m is the bible. It is the conductor. Follow it to the promised land. It really is that simple. Just trade the MACD cross or the divergences and bam you can almost win every time.
ReplyDeletegonna let the 1m cycle on QID and possibly go for an entry soon. 5/15m have divergences and are trending up which should add to the strength of the play.Out of lower BB on 30m chart. Only problem is 30m is getting whipsawed from yesterday. Not sure that bothers me all that much. Could be a really good entry if the PPT or the treasury does not get in the way.
ReplyDeleteQID may be bottoming soon.
ReplyDeleteAt gap support and has 30m divergences - Not buying yet.
ReplyDelete45 may have been it. I missed it cause I was not looking. Still remaining patient as gap got filled and divergences are still in tact.
ReplyDeleteGap not filled - my bad - need disqus so I can edit these things - gap fill is at 18.06
ReplyDeleteQID higher low and challenging resistance.
ReplyDeleteLong at 53.
ReplyDeleteshould have let 1m cycle one more time. will most likely add if I am right. Should not have missed the 45 range for entry.
ReplyDeleteSPX closes gap from 6/29
ReplyDelete10m about to hopefully go buy on QID.
ReplyDeleteTza setting up too
ReplyDeleteThey all are.
ReplyDeletePlaying qid cause most bang for the buck now.
ReplyDelete1m rolling over. Should get a chance to add at the bottom. If I had gotten the right entry in low 40's I would have sold with 20 cent gain and pocketed winner.
ReplyDeleteLong tza at 38.00
ReplyDeleteI can't tell cause of the charts being screwed up, but it should follow SDS and QID and be just fine.
ReplyDeleteThings may suck thru lunch. this afternoon may be interesting - with the market going either way - no matter what the charts say.
Ya agree. Five up on rut from lows. Lol I'm trading and driving with bad reception. Prolly not too safe.
ReplyDeletethe tell may be if we get a higher low on this move south on the indexes. I want to think this is a bear flag, but on the other hand we may have just completed a bull flag. Thus the tough call. Based on 30m charts (as long as they do not embed) we should be headed south.
ReplyDeletesomeone else is online - there are 3 - who could that be?
ReplyDeleteSomeone from Anniston is on - UL is that you?
ReplyDeleteWhere is my ip from? I'm on I-20 eastbound in north Louisiana.
ReplyDeleteYou are either in annison, Al or somewhere in KS.
ReplyDeleteWhen you are at work I gen get realy close to your location.
OK - nut cutting time. Entering lower vol lunch where I'm not sure if they can ramp it or not. It is possible the bear flag is breaking down and the divergences will hold.
ReplyDeleteSadly the minis have some room to run if they want. I'd really like to see them run like hepp to the VWAP at 1044 (but 23 points may be a little much to ask for). that does give another good indication of how overbought it is though. If minis take out 63 we may get somewhere.
Little nervous as I don't trust the manipulators on a Friday.
What is this VWAP you speak of????
ReplyDeleteI'll send an email for that one.
ReplyDeleteSPX holding support line from thursday AM right now and battling back to crack resistance line for today. the divergences are set, odds are really good this is some sort of NT top. Still, in this game vs the dealer playing with a loaded deck you can't trust anything. Keep the stops tight.
ReplyDeleteThat better be a throwover of the intraday wedge on SPX. Everything I see says south.
ReplyDeleteHere is a problem - SPX and INDU have closed their gaps and the COMP is at or near gap resistance, but the RUT is a mile from the same gap that is all the way up at 636. Maybe those get left open.
Well that dealer has a shitty poker face. Macd cross on tza 30 min.
ReplyDelete67 should be a good SPX target.
ReplyDeleteRut set a new low and spx truncated. I was thinking about the exact same thing last night while looking at charts. Rut has a way to go for retrace and fibos. Others dint cause of truncation. We will see what happens. I am very interested. Not driving anymore btw I'm here!! Woohoo!!
ReplyDeleteLove what you've done with the decor Shanky.
ReplyDelete10:42 @ 1076 may have been the start of the great Ponzi Puke.
Doubt only confirms it.
Hard to sell when we want to buy,
and buy when we want to sell.
If you wanna get woo woo, the sun went active last night, as it will before a giant douche plunger flush. TWAT...
GL fishing. Hey don;t text and drive. it is against the law now. LOL more control - radios are out next cause you will not be able to hear to drive.
ReplyDeleteBB's really narrowing on the 5m. Volatility is a coming. Let's hope it is south.
ReplyDeleteLOL Welcome rich - you found us. darn it. This place is in it's infancy. I like it in the dark.
ReplyDeleteIt isn't against the law in tx I don't think. Anyway gonna wait till this evening to go fishing it is 98 here and prolly too hot in the shallows for the bass to be hitting. They will be this evening though.
ReplyDeleteRich, guess you figured out why it is called the dark side, huh?? Lol!
Boys caught 5 brim. Sweated to death. The rod I fixed gave out. Need to head to Dicks for a couple more.
ReplyDeleteGetting worried about this market action as a shortie. Triangles and wedges are screwing up and reforming. Won;t give me a clear path.
If it should pop up to a higher high the divergences would be insane. Indicators should be still heading south as they have not bottomed on the 15m. Kind of whipsawish.
Range is miserable as the QID long 53 at 11:00 is just break even right now.
ReplyDeleteAdded some charts of SPX.
ReplyDeleteDon't like the looks of things here. Big pop on SPX at 1:50 took out resistance. there is no reason to ramp, but I'm a little leery here as the manipulators may want to move price going into the weekend. They have done a miraculous job supporting price all day. Whipsawing the shorter indicators might have happened. If you are short, have tight stops.
ReplyDeleteCrappy day. could not even find any equities to play in worth a flip (short or long).
ReplyDeleteQuiet distribution before the volatility storm...
ReplyDeleteThx fer the welcome IS.
ReplyDeleteBot some SQQQ for a trade.
Prolly paid to much with a market order.
Either that or the FAZ for a bank holiday;
BP claiming total seal in 4 dayz...ooofff
ReplyDeleteAlmost 3:00 let's see what they have left to bring after keeping it propped up all day.
ReplyDeleteBass boat fishing big on Ark River along with Copperheads, Corals and Cottonmouths...
ReplyDelete"Crappy day. could not even find any equities to play in worth a flip (short or long)."
ReplyDeleteYes it is. Made 2 trades today, but dumped them soon after placing them.
Lost $7 on one trade, $5 on another. LOL
But twm looks to be near end of "ending diagnol".
I am placing buy order near $21.71
Uszly
They brought a scoshe less volume to 1076.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if it sells off.
Remember the Alamo...
WEEEEEE! SPX at new highs. Simply amazing. It pays to be suspicious these days and to keep stops tight. I'm in cash with a small loss on the QID. (could not get market order executed in time). Question - is this real or is that a purdy double top? Divergences still intact and now the 60m is diverging and about to get MACD bear cross. Let 'em run it. Monday may be interesting. Remember earnings next week.
ReplyDeleteThe week ends with a whimper?
ReplyDeleteDT methinks until shown otherwise...
ReplyDeleteAn entry on the close might be a better price..
Shanky, you had a favortie of the volatility trades.
ReplyDeleteWas it VXX?
Just bot some FAZ...
ReplyDeleteVXX yes.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s179706321]&disp=P
ReplyDeleteVXX is more consistent reliable performer (smoothed out), yet you may get more bang for the buck from VXZ.
Got this from columbia blog.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a little overshoot on monday then reverse ?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=3&i=p16221202715&a=189415830&r=825
Got some orders in under the market to short.
ReplyDeleteAAPL spiking up might hook the bass..
Trailing Buy Stops that is...
ReplyDeleteThx Shanky re VXX VXZ.
Dang: VXX volatility 68% and VXZ 88%.
Looks like Mr Market may get busy ahead...
CNBC pinning a lot of hope on earnings next week. How about spurnings?;
ReplyDeleteI like that call Uszly. Divergences are out of hand right now. This ramp is total bullshit.
ReplyDeleteThe only problem is earnings fraud and pump. This thing could get out of hand.
AA kicks it off Monday after the bell.
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3273
tanking? couple of gaps on the 1m. Big reversal candle on the 5m.
ReplyDeleteLOL - it is worth dreaming about isn't it?
Whoaa
ReplyDeleteJust got filled on low for August Q's puts in size. Now I'm scared...
I gotta add disqus this weekend.
ReplyDeleteJust looked at rut 1 min chart. Down we go!
ReplyDeleteRUT 60m chart above. Pick your poison.
ReplyDeleteThe 61% retrace just above the gap looks like a tasty target for a bull hungry, earnings BS pop regardless of what the indicators say. No matter the divergences. Now, the indicators may confirm a failure in the earnings - or does the inverse H&S indicate surprise upside? Like I said, pick your poison.
ReplyDeleteRe not dreaming S - saw that red spike drop also @ 3:46
ReplyDeleteMethinks Monday could be a beast of altogether different complexion...
Have a good weekend. I'll be updating charts and trying to get a game plan for next week over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteSee you Monday.
So many people are expecting good earnings they could already be baked in prices.
ReplyDeleteClose approaches. Time to fish short or cut long bait...
Great stuff last Friday folks!
ReplyDeleteI applaud all of you!