January 5, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Did everyone vote this morning? Whoops, you couldn't cause I'm now Hall of Fame author on SC. Nice! Thanks to all of you for your continued support. I know it was a pain to have to remember and go vote each day and sincerely thank you for your efforts. I'll do my best to remain worthy (or even get better). Very humbling to have started all this blogging and stuff less than 2 years ago and to be having the support and success I am. Thank you very much. Now, where do we shift the voting support? I know several readers (who graciously signed up for SC and used me as a reference so I got free time) that use SC but can not personally pick amongst them. I would like to take suggestions from the readership. One thing I do not want is for Rocket to make it. 16 charts and constantly a week behind in updating them would be a farce to the system. He has to win it three months in a row, if he gets two under his belt we may have to intervene (ouch). Astro Cycle and Above the Green Line have been consistently at the top and have always been in the battle with me. Thank you again for the spectacular effort. I am humbled.

On to business. Someone steadfastly remained short going into today, but also warned that after today POMO returns. When I woke up I was tickled to see the minis down 10. Then this ADP crap came out and they recover almost 9 points. America is still functioning, but remember how and why. Without stimulus and TARP we would have done away with the TBTF's, would have been thru the severe deflation and coming out the backside of the debt crisis. Instead we're living in a stimulus bubble that will eventually burst when we run out of money or ink (whichever comes first).

I'm still thinking blow off top here, but can't dispute earnings coming Monday and POMO is alive and well which could screw up a great short set up. If the wedge formations all over the place are correct then we've topped or are nearing one. As speculated, the charts may be leaning to calling a earnings disappointment that POMO can't control to a point. I was willing to commit thru today, but POMO returns tomorrow.

The ADP report may indicate some sort of surprise tomorrow. So shortie needs to be on the look out. That upper daily BB is in the way right now and the BB is narrowing indicating volatility is a commin. Which way? A significant push higher here looks technically improbable given the ramp and overbought conditions, but we must remember the Fed via POMO and manipulation are in TOTAL control.

The flurry of improbable ramps we have seen over the past year are to serve as a reminder of the possibilities to come under the current regime. The minis are pulling back again hurting the 30m candle formation coming into the open. Let's be patient and let the market show it's hand this AM. I'm still leaning down on this smaller POMO day. I think that minis 50% channel diagonal off the 667 lows is significant resistance.

More coming on the big blog from here.

Q's 30m - this wedge is the most traditional. Most major indexes stopped at gap support yesterday. Let's look to see if that can crack today. If so, bears have a shot. If not, we'll be hedging shorts buying the rip like we did yesterday. I'll start calling support areas when and if the markets can get any momo south. As for upside, I have been looking for 1283 SPX.

GL and GB.
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