Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

DOW off a buckie! Currencies off, gold off - something is happening. 

Minis off 10 after the close. 

WEEEE! All hail the financial index! Quite the change. I guess Fraudclosuregate was no big deal after all? Phew, had me worried there for a minute.

Worst case scenario for the bears.Down for 4 and up for 5. As I have harped on for months now, the form of the fall here will be key and there will be a moment where we either have a third or a C and will have to make a decision. Was this the end of ABC 2 or is this just a 3rd and we have one more ramp to go? The initial forecasted plunge (near 10/25 - nice B-day present for 'ol Shanky) should take price to 50/30/19/10/00 (sorry can't give a target but those are the obvious points - I like 00 and a touch of the lower channel line before a ramp into EOY - then crash in February).  This is all hypothetical right now and just mumbling thru the possibilities. Either way the big move happens in or near February I think.

2:20 - Remember that 1m double gap down I told you to keep an eye on. Apparently it was simply a trigger to get POMO to work. This is quite the whipsaw. 

12:20 - Who's gonna lay catchup? 

12:15 - Role reversal? 

See the charts below.

Everything looks pretty bad at this moment, but we got POMO today and earnings tonight and tomorrow that could really move the markets either way, esp AAPL and GS.

GL this week.

Weekend Post

EUR/USD - Completing C=A here just shy of LT resistance with Daily indicators turning. Is this some sort of leader? 

Minis - Past nine daily candles. Doji city. One red, excluding today. Volume did increase Friday.This also goes to show why the past two weeks have basically sucked for traders (and for bloggers trying to run blogs like this. Nothing to call but ramps or slow churn up. That will change very soon.

VIX,VXX, VXZ Comparison - Interested to see the shore term under the VIX and the spread between LT and ST. I thought this was very telling. NT POMO/QEII/Elections, but when that ends so does the party.

I'll start it off with this chart.

2 things - Either the financials correct and we all go to the moon or there is really big trouble. 

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

WOW!

1:35 - GOOG had a little catching up to do. AAPL after close Monday - Can they continue the ramp or do they disappoint? 

1:30 - SPX Triangle

11:55- 5m SPX chart with possible triangle reversal top. Not one but Two! HnS forming if the top is in and targets (not time just targets.First triangle base support is at 68 then the second or neckline is at 55.

SPX 60m -

60m -

30m comparison -

POMO day with some earnings wind behind it.

Fed rumors lifting all tides.

LOL, this market is a joke.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

SPX 1m off the top with fibs and gaps. Blue gaps are islands. Bears of course hope we're in a third down and the move to 79 was a completed corrective 2. Looks good so far esp with the 15 and 30m candles. If this plays out correctly we may get a third of a third after lunch. If not, you know what to expect.

How is your favorite index doing today? This is a 1m chart I have you may want to bookmark. 

11:30 - SPX 1m -  Backtest of the diagonal near 79 I spoke of below. Back in the larger wedge.

USD/SPX comparison - this correlation will have to bust sooner than later. If not they both need a corrective in a serious way. Oh, nad congratulations, your dollar has lost over 10% of it's purchasing power since June!

Still in topping mode. Against my better judgment (knowing we have 3 POMO days next week and a fresh POMO schedule to work off of now), I'm still leaning to calling some sort of top. The question becomes are we still in P2 and have a lot more upside to come or is P3 still (rightfully) in play? Idiotic? Insane? Fing nuts? Absofrigginlutely, but what else isn't? I believe we've all come to the conclusion that this game is rigged and nothing is real anymore. The market has become untradeable on other than 1 and 5m time frames. I did actually swing a very small TZA position last night. First time I have swung anything in a while.

Bottom line as I have been saying since the 1040 low when Ben raised the markets from the ashes it is all about the QEII announcement, POMO and the elections. After the elections all bets are off. 

Minis 4hr - Added the orange channel and a pink diagonal off of the Sept '09 lows that fits where we are.Way to many things coming together here for it not have topped yesterday or will top soon no matter what POMO or the HFT bots say.

 Minis Daily -

 Minis Daily up close and personal -

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

12:25 - 60m SPX - I'm thinking blow off top similar to the one on 9/21 but worse. Possible head forming here. 40 points targets 1010. If this is not some super ramp of course to eliminate all shorts from the market. It may become apparent that the "No One Can Sell" mandate is in place.

NOTE - If you are into comparing things look at the Sept '09 thru Jan 10 run to that top and compare it to this one.

11:21 - 30m index comparison chart - not much to compare. 

10:05 - SPX 60m - I can't move or stretch the wedge any farther. That is it.  The only hope the bulls have is (highly unprobable and rarely ever seen) to spike the upper resistance line and to reset the C touch of the A-E wedge at this point. We already lowered the D touch to extend the wedge once (from the once apparent 1150 top area). That could happen again as well. Bottom line is I am now pretty much sold (against my better judgment) that we're finally topping. Why do I say against my better judgment? Cause this sucker is rigged and it makes no sense what is happening.

Chart to come - blogger is having issues.

Minis 30m - 

Minis 4hr - The wedge

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

9:53 - SPX 30m with gaps and fibs -  Down trending red thick is the busted bear market resistance line. Heavy blue is the Oct '09 S/R line. You can see the wedge coming up. There ain't squat below 52 to 30 to stop it.

Minis off 8 at midnight.

Interesting gold charts.

Nothing like a perfect HnS measurement with a rising wedge ending A-E touch and overbought as hell indicators diverging.It may still climb some, but when RSI crosses that support line you'll know for sure the job has been completed.

GL today!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Good morning and happy Columbus Day. Today should be pretty dull unless some news event happens. Minis up 2 after being as high as 1165. 60, 30 and 15m all say down, but that is no guarantee as we all know. I doubt I will even open my trading platform today.

Minis 4hr chart and the wedge. The pink dashed mear market upper resistance line and the blue dashed Oct '09 S/R line are now support and still very much in play. Purple support is the big kahuna to me. Still not ruling out this thing getting one more reset of the lower green wedge support line. Not ruling out the upper resistance line being reset either. We all know this market is rigged and will simply have to deal with that fact until 11/03.

GL today!

Weekend Post - Open To The Public

Got something to say or share - go for it.


I'll post charts and articles that I find worthy this weekend.


Have a great one. Get out an enjoy everything while you still can.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

TZA chart - I think this says it all.so you are telling me that in the past two years things have gotten so good that this is the result? What did we cure cancer and have the Second coming? Did I miss something?

10:15 - SPX 1m - Yup,  this is normal for sure.  That might be a triple top. 61 is most definitely resistance. Nothing like three 4 point swings followed by three 3 point swings in the first 45m of trading. Wedge is possibly cracking here. 

SPX 1m - This is totally normal after a bad jobs report. 

10 year - Up - no surprise here. LOL.

 Long term there is no fear of a bond bubble forming.

Silver futures on the move again. This is a sign that there is no fear in the market cause there will be a run on flatware, goblets and trays a Tiffany's this month.

Minis - Possible HnS with RS forming here under 57.5 resistance. Hey - it's possible - right?

EUR/USD -weren't we worried about the EUR crashing a month or so ago?

Dollar - 

Post Employment close up chart -  That is a 10 point pop off the bottom to the blue diagonal resistance.

Pre Employment chart for prosperity. At 52 support level which is also the 30m 200m, the busted upper bear market resistance line (red) and the Oct '09 S/R line (blue). The lower green line is the NEW lower wedge support andn the dashed green line was original now busted and backtested twice wedge support.

Not going to post anything till employment comes out this AM.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

3:20 - Dollar v. SPX - any questions?

1:00 - SPX 15m possible wedge. 

12:44 - Minis 5m wedge possibility. This is the only thing I could find other than one obscure data point  for support here.

12:09 - Minis 1m - 

11:35 - EUR/USD - looks like this is the correlation pair to me with AUD/JPY not cooperating right now (which may be a signal in ts self). 61% retrace of the fall from 51. Resistance at .38. C=A at 40.5. At top of channel. Overbought on daily indicators. Time for another 5 down me thinks. .06 would be the target. I guess TA says things are about to really start sucking.

11:30 - Gold -  only 35 off the top TODAY

9:55 - SPX charts -  60m view of all the gaps and the whole wedge. Thick red is the upper bear market TL and the thick blue is the Oct '09 S/R diagonal.

 SPX 10m -

Minis chart - 30m Regulars should know what all the lines are. If not
Pink Dashed - was bear market resistance from the top in '07 over the April top.
Blue dashed - is the Oct '09 S/R diagonal
Gray dashed is NT support line (busted and backtested this AM)
Orange is 30m 200ema
Green dashed is the possible new wedge support if it was lowered and price is not backtesting the wedge support diagonal at this time.
Pink diagonal is the S/R for recent lows off of the 9/6 high down near 1128. This is the biggie to me.

Morning post -

This is stupid.

Minis up 3.75 backtesting the diagonal support from Tuesday's lows at 1159. Uh...about to set a new high.

Woops - they set a new high.

62.87 is the BIG wedge off the 1040 lows backtest (again) and the apex of the wedge is just above as well.

You gotta love the promise of QE II! Who gives a shit if everything is a lie. Fucking buy it up!