Plain and simple (well it should be) the 5 thru 60m indicators all have some nasty divergences to price. The retail sales disappointments are no surprise to me (they are to CNBS that pumped the fact that things were looking up up up all thru the holidays - please send in your recovery success stories!).Sadly we're back to the big POMO days. The Jobs number was not so hot as indicated by ADP (a number of people pointed out that ADP was not the most reliable indicator).
SPX 30m - Looks set up to sell to me. Can technicals (with some bad retail fundamentals) overrule a big POMO day?
Minis are up a little over three right now but falling. No violent moves overnight. Just a steady climb till the started falling off around 7:30 this morning. I showed my CPC chart on the big blog yesterday. that one and many others are screaming top. Most are thinking this will be THE top. I'm pretty much in that camp. My cycle target chart has been pretty accurate. some of you may remember the green circle call on this chart from a week before the April top (possibly my best ever). Pay close attention to that next red vert line.
Let's keep a cautions eye to the surprise (to me at least) downside move here. TGT and the retail sector may take a beating, but we have POMO to come to the rescue. The charts are indicating yet another divergence in an already overbought market that has unsuccessfully tried to pull back once. Maybe the bears have another push in them. Either way the retail and jobs data should weigh in the markets and provide resistance to the upside (along with that 50% minis channel diagonal I have been showing for some time).
GL and GB.
