AUD/JPY at wedge/channel double resistance in a rising wedge - should signal reversal at minimum severe resistance. Overthrow is possible.
Dollar daily -
Dollar SPX comparison.
Minis channel update. Stalled at support line off of the 9/08 lows -
You all know I have a love affair with the 30m 200ma as a major support point - compare across indexes here.
Another cycle chart I have.
Bingo! The magical blue line marks the spot. Note it can go a lot lower, but we've entered a zone where pain is immanent.
More unison issues. I think I showed this one yesterday.
Major banks diverging to SPX and other indexes. Similar set up to '08 where the $DJUSFN was way below the big boys and they (all) corrected accordingly.
Rich will like this one - You know what I have shown time again when all these things bunch up like this.Nice divergence in RSI and on the MACD hist.
Minis channeling -
My best guess at this time - Soot up to 1210 from here and if that upper diagonal busts bulls have the ball. there is a shot at much more downside, but that may have gone out the window with the failure at 1200.I would really not be surprised to see the whole move off of 1183 taken back, but with POMO coming I simply can not see it here. Also the shorter time frames on the indicators are beginning to roll up now. $7.2B in treasuries purchased by the Fed.
RUT wedge - could 713 be the target? A-E with classic overthrow on the E touch and a gap out on the exit with a mini backtest in place. That's pretty nasty. I don't like it (only because of POMO), but technically I would normally be all over it.
SPX 60m - stopped it on the diagonal. Even I was expecting worse. Damn they are good.
Minis 4hr - Oversold, but with some possible room still to fall. What I am looking at is the green wedge diagonal support ans the blue diagonal support. That is a nice spike thru the green support diagonal, but the stick save there may be worth noting. The blue diagonal support goes all the way back to 09/06. Get thru these with conviction and we can talk about more downside.
Remember how I said the dollar had a little room to go to get to resistance ..... is it right shoulder time?
Thank goodness I was keeping that bearish count alive yesterday and did not totally recede into my POMO womb. As noted my Spidey sense was tingling yesterday worrying about something this weekend. Then I got to looking at the charts last night. Things look awful. Even the weekly has set two key points that I used to call and confirm the April top. Like I posted late last night TA does have a strange way of timing things or events.
All that said I'm still staring down the octobarrel of POMO. A possible total of $53.5 Billion can be thrust into a rigged market over the next 8 sessions. compare that to the $85b taken out over the past 26 weeks and you get a slight skew in the numbers.
I'll keep calling it the way I see it, which as noted had us possibly in a 3rd. From my ending post yesterday I said, "Bears had (and still may have) a possible great set up for a significant move south. I mean significant. I'm not touching it and am waiting on the POMO day tomorrow to most likely be astounded by the power and sheer arrogance of the Fed.". To add to that I have been calling for the pop-n-drop to the 75 level (raised from 30). The calls have been basic and easy to see and we've been all over them from the bottom. The ramp from 1040 to QEII/election announcement, the euphoric pop and now the drop have all been called here.
As noted yesterday ODA, Incarnate and I all capitulated to the dark side this week. I am the only one that has not had the shotgun wedding. Sure sign of a top there taking out three massive bears. The bad news is I am sticking with my commitment that the Fed will eventually rule the markets and POMO will boost the markets. So it is down for 4 and then up to the final and ultimate top for 5 of P2 and then the games can begin.
So I'll call it as I see it, but I am not about to doubt Benny to lite the Jets on this market and keep it afloat at least through Xmas, then all bets are off.
GL and have a great weekend.
