Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

SPX 1m today and yesterday with gap and fibs. SC has another gap below. See my 1m chart there for another look. 

Minis LT channel - note 50% diagonal resistance nearing. 

Factory orders at 10:00 and FOMC minutes at 2:00 are the only things to look out for today. Markets up chasing Asian success overnight. Small POMO today and tomorrow then they ramp it back up Thursday and Friday.

Did a bunch of charting last night while watching the Cardinal throw down on the ACC Hokie. (Congratulations, enjoy it while it lasts cause Luck and Harbaugh will be gone in a flash.) All I found was wedge after wedge that appear to be overthrowing with divergences getting blown out. It has all the characteristics of a blow off top. I think we're in a head of a larger HnS that appears to be worth about 90 points at this time which if topped here would target near 1090. That would be the best bear scenario of course.

Since there is this thing called the Fed controlling and manipulating the markets using POMO to pump shares to bubblish valuations you can't rely on traditional technical analysis as a guide post. What were waiting on is for the Fed to begin to pull liquidity. Just like the April top when the Fed experienced pulling the IV, the markets will plummet. The math at this time from the HnS is pretty close to the 220 point fall we had after April. You lose POMO and you lose the markets. We may have to wait for QEII to end and listen for the rhetoric about QEIII to get our clues.

The VIX (still busted) is diverging from SPX right now as it has set a higher low while the SPX continues to set higher highs. CPC is primed and ready. We just have to wait and be patient. right now the markets appear to be signaling that earnings season will disappoint. How could they not with where commodity prices higher than hell and a dead consumer in a country that is loosing 400k jobs per week with 43 MILLION on food stamps toating a debt load that the Fed can't even print off (I'll stop there and not mention the 1,000 other issues). 

USB (30yr) is putting on the ultimate bear cross right now with the 50dma crossing the 200dma. The TNX has a bit more to run if technicals hold. FTSE has led the SPX in the last few major moves south and is falling again. A flattening yield curve will indicate a turn in the markets. that can not be ignored.

Oil is continuing it's ramp which is not good for the economy and the higher commod prices across the board will hit the markets hard sooner than later (I'll work in those charts today and UNG, gold and silver as well).

SPX Daily Indicator chart puts it all in one place. Looks like there is a bit of time left for the markets to run. Maybe we get a slight corrective as this wedge plays out and then a last churn to the 1283 level in February. My call from the 1140 lows has been spot on. Ramp to the QEII announcement, euphoric pop on the announcement, then drop then ramp to Christmas. Could not have been any better. That was the easy one. Now it gets tough as seasonality ends and the Fed's game takes away traditional tools used for predicting market actions. My only suggestion is to follow the fed's lead. At this time I have been speculating for some time February would be the month for the turn. I may need some help getting that call. Till then I can't get any more specific. Will wait for QEIII rhetoric to come, that will be very important.

Note - all the links are cause blogger will not let me post charts this morning.

GL and GB.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis have recovered 14 points off Friday's lows and have returned to that LT 50% diagonal I have been showing for some time now. Massive divergence on the MACD that is  flattening on a 4hr chart none the less.

This SPX 30m chart will show a possible triangle breakout after the open this morning. 1266 would be the target.

This daily SPX chart says that any run up from here should be short lived.

The dollar is simply consolidating at this point. 

Heavy POMO day today then two light days and Thurs and Fri will be heavy again. Earnings season kicks off on the 10th with AA. This will be a major market driver in either direction as speculation and fraud persevere. More speculation from me on this as earnings gets closer. After updating some of the charts (no news yet from SC on last month's victory and my status - I'll let you know when I hear something) last night, all I can say is that markets are severely overbought. We've seen improbable runs from these levels before and must anticipate them again as the Fed and POMO are in control.

I am still holding those small shorts from last week. Will possibly be exiting more than likely this morning some time. Not sure yet. I want to see the strength of this move. Counts are all over the place. I can not discount those that have this counting as a finished major. I and not discount those that see the markets moving higher either and speculate they are more than likely correct. You have to roll with the Fed. It is that simple. Let's keep an eye out for a market that struggles to really move up from here.

GL and GB.

Happy New Year!

Not the best pic, but here is the RH view from the desk here in CB. 

Here is a present for you bears. This chart should indicate what all of you have been waiting for all year. I regretfully can not cal a top here in the face of the Fed's mandate and POMO, but in any normal instance I would most likely be doing so.This is the second chart in my chartbook.

Everyone have a great New Year.

Thanks again for all the support. Let's make 2011 a banner year for portfolio returns.

Morning Post

Daily Comparison Chart - Respect the bunch!

Minis daily - Controlled ascent.  MACD about to bear cross as is S Sto. The divergence on RSI is pretty harsh. Without POMO I'd be looking at calling a major top here, but we can't go there. We should be close though. Typical holiday volume wind down. 

Bears better make hay today and in the shortened session tomorrow. POMO comes back with a vengeance on the 3rd. Remember not to fight the Fed. Benny and The Ink Jets has promised to keep the markets afloat and he's doing a fine job with that so far. Bears may get a hand when the Fed must support the muni markets in '11 with a heavier hand. Other "needs" will begin to rear their heads in '11 as well. Supporting the EU will become a major issue. All this leads to a flat controlled market with limited upside from here.

Bears will have to remain patient. I believe the econ indicators and earnings will begin to weaken in early '11 and then really fall off later in the year. This will damper markets but not cause the crash. We're gonna need the exogenous or external event I have been calling for to end it all. When that finally happens it will be a game over situation, and I'm looking for martial law to be in effect soon after.

Martial law Shanky? Seriously? Yup, when the SS and pension systems totally collapse you are gonna see the FEMA camps come alive as all the pent up frustrations finally boil over. They can possibly extend this nightmare till 2012, but I have my doubts. I believe the markets will top in February or in the summer and when they do you better have fuel and food. I plan on doing a big write up for the new .com blog for 2011 predictions.

I will be consolidating everything into a new .com site that will be better for everyone. More info on more topics that will free me up to have a broader base. Calling the markets and charting will be primary focus, but getting back into ranting and writing will be much more prevalent. Spreading the news and enlightening the readers will eventually become more important than anything (as long as that will be allowed by the government). With what I plan on writing and posting, I suspect my "handler" (if not already) will have me flagged and a room at the nearest FEMA facility ready for me to occupy.

Thanks to everyone for another great year on the blogs. I honestly appreciate the support from everyone. Way too many to mention by name, but I have to point out Rich, ODA and Incarnate for their superior support both on and off the blog. Without these three keeping my head on straight, I could have easily melted down multiple times. It is tough making daily calls and all. Fortunately we have been on the right side of the trade a vast majority of the year. We're growing and the community is melding nicely. I hope to maintain and grow this going forward.

Thanks again to all of you for voting on SC (hopefully that nightmare will end soon). That is like donating to me cause I get free time, and if I make HoF this month then it will be a constant draw to the site for more readers. Your voting is mostly a huge vote in confidence in my abilities and possibly the best compliment I can get. Little things like that help to keep me going. I am not as elaborate as others and don't have all the fancy charts and stuff, but I do generate what matters in the end, a high percentage of correct market timing calls.

Thanks to all and a happy New Year!

Morning Post

The dollar's movements are not reflecting the markets actions. PPT working OT.

Inverse correlation has been trashed. 

Sorry I am late. Actually caught up on some sleep.

Morning Post

In case you are wondering why I will be distracted all week - this is the back yard.  Just got in from making sled jumps for the kids. Skiing and more work on the igloo later today. Might move here when all hell breaks loose. More pics to come.

I'm here on a dreadfully slow computer I am having to update and make work properly. Gobs of snow everywhere here in Crested Butte, CO.

Happy Boxing Day!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Remember that minis 50% channel line that I have been following for a while now?

Today is a travel day for Shanky. Headed to CO to ski with the family. I will be working each morning as the time change will have me up bright and early. I'll be hit or miss in the afternoons. If the markets are hot and moving I'll be here for sure.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. We had a special one here in GA as it was my first white Christmas ever (first in over 100yrs on GA). Good omen? Mama got a .38 cal with a lazer sight and the kids got .22 pistols!

China raised rates. Not sure what this week will have in store. Earnings season starts on the 10th with AA. It is after Xmas and all bets are off . I'm thinking late Jan - early Feb for top spot, but it can happen any time and could be in.

Gonna be time to buckle down and get really serious after the 1st. This is gonna be a big year. Defaults, violence, market crashes. We're all gonna have to be on our games.

Thanks for the support and GL!

Merry Christmas

HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Hard to chart here. Looks like price has busted a rising wedge, but that is not all that clear to me. 

Boy this market looks sick. Will my all bets are off till after Xmas call make it to the big day or do we top before (like yesterday)? Either way it is time to start looking at what the fib retracements are calling for. That 5=1 measurement of 1283 is in the neighborhood. Stopping just shy would not disappoint me. Based on the counts we should be very close, but there is this slight problem called the Fed and POMO. Gambling that a manipulated and controlled market that has destroyed divergences like Optimus Prime beats on decepticons has proven to be a fools game, but maybe this time will be different. I'm still a believer that me external event will be the catalyst. It may not mark the top but it will be the one event that will send the markets into that final tailspin they will not recover from.

SPX Daily - Little different view than yesterday. Look at this chart closely. The support line under the MACD and the TRIX (not drawn) are running out of room. Looks like February will be the max (who's been calling for the top late Jan/early Feb with an all bets are off after Xmas kicker?) $BPNYA is above the red market top line. Divergences are everywhere in a market that should have (would have under any normal circumstances) topped back in November after the QEII announcement. We're in some extreme conditions up here.

The 2007 highs are not that far off which should be disturbing to all except the Fed (bubbles do not exist to them). Divergences all over the place with over bullish sentiment are the norm these days, but they keep on pushing the bar higher. EOY prints will be where they want them if they can keep this up. The struggling hedge funds are working overtime to get their heads above water (like most here, the smartest in the world all got burned being short).

I'll be in and out again today. Thanks for all your support and votes. I hope you all are having a great holiday season.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

I just can't buy the GDP report. How the US economy grew is beyond me. I think it will be proven eventually to have been a fraud report. Till that point we have to go with what they are telling us.

SPX daily -Upper diagonal resistance. Bottom line is the divergence is about to get blown out and when that happens you get into what I call a blow off top. Anything above here or as it climbs from here, the more ridiculous it all becomes.

Not sure if we're making the pilgrimage to the ATL today as Lil' Shanky I is wiped out. May take II. So I will be in and out today as well. Thanks to all for the comments and great conversation yesterday. We're a budding little community with a bunch of knowledgeable traders. 

Have a good day and enjoy the season!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

My ToS data - nice - told you the markets were dead.  BB's are getting super narrow LOL.

Minis simply traveling up this 50% channel diagonal - for a long time. Not so sure they want to get away from it.

Minis up 5 heading into the biggest POMO day on record ($17b and add $11b tomorrow). Hope some of you got to see the lunar eclipse last night. No econ data today but tomorrow we get GDP and Thursday should be busy as well.

SPX 60m  from the 1040 lows with gaps and fibs. Looks to be wanting to roll over setting divergences after a record run in September and October.

I'll be in and out today. Hope everyone is enjoying the season. the fat man comes Friday night! GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

SPX 10m -backtesting busted support?  Recent bottom, climb and fibs. Note the 41.50 support.

Morning, sorry I did not check in this weekend. I was pretty busy with holiday stuff and the kids. Thanks for the comments and charts that everyone left. I really appreciate the effort to remember to vote for me. Very thoughtful gestures and mucho appreciated.

Wednesday and Thrusday this week are the bid econ data days. See the calendar HERE. 

The big POMO event this week is on the 21st with $17 BILLION possible on ONE day. See schedule HERE.

Big Lunar Eclipse on Tuesday night might generate some sort of solar emptional trading. 

Last week I was looking for a higher high to set a divergence (or should I say another or worsened divergence since the divergence that was set after the last fall was not worked off). Minis up over 5 at this time. Minis 60m are apparently following the 50% channel line and have been for some time.

SPX had been after 1247 twice last week and failed to set a higher high. Maybe that pop this morning will get 'em there. Looking at the two holiday weeks last year this Monday was it, then poof goes the volume. Next week was quite interesting. Not saying there won't be any trading opps or that big moves are not possible. Just saying that most are worried about other things and enjoying the season.

SPX 60m - See the divergence I am looking at with this pop? The daily is there as well.

Speaking of enjoying the season, I will be in and out all week as I have some shopping, hunting, a day trip to the ATL and a few other things going on. I plan on doing morning posts and covering the mornings live all week. At some point next week we'll be hitting the annual pilgrimage to CO. Flight has not been scheduled yet, but we'll be there thru New Years. I do report and work from out there as well.

GL and thanks again for all the thoughtful support.

Open Weekend Post

Have at it! News, charts, comments and the like. All are welcome.

Have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Dollar 60m Inv HnS? You tell me. MACD looks like it wants to run. 82.20 target. that would spank the SPX. 

Tax deal done and markets are not liking it. I thought ORCL and RIMM earnings would possibly boost the futures. I thought wrong. I want to think this 4th has more to go. Based on time I think it needs to be stretched some to get the top of 5 out a little further. This does not necessarily mean down more, but it could. Still targeting 1283. You should know the topping measurements have us in the window already (it is a big window).

Opex, holiday Friday, schools out down here today (which means I may start slacking the pre-market some but not the trading hours), inportant earnings are completed (except for NKE) till Jan 10th, all add up to traders maybe slowing down some. EOY prints are still a priority. Maybe some more insider selling. POMO could be distracted to other areas needing support. Spain and the PIIGS are blowing up. After Xmas all bets are off. 2011 will be the year. they can not extend and pretend much longer. 2012 will be much worse.

SPX 60m - the fall felt large, but in the scheme of things we've retraced nothing. This run IMO is weak based on the fast that price is 3 points off the top but the indicators are lagging horribly. If we gat any pop to a higher high the divergences would be dramatic.

I'm thinking it will be quiet today. Minis have defined support diagonal I showed yesterday. 1250 is resistance diagonal and 41 is resistance. If the minis can get thru 1230 to the downside a significant move could happen. I'm thinking today will stink and trade in a narrow range.

GL today and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis 30m -Channeling down and now up support.

The charts look nasty. If the Fed can be distracted by the bond markets and the EU bailouts there are not enough funds to save all. They can't print it fast enough and the Ponzi will finally die. All of this is happening now. I have come to the conclusion that there is a good chance that the top is set. At this time we have to consider the only two scenarios left - top is set or there is one more pop left in their arsenal. Those waiting on a failed treasury auction to mark the top will be to late. That will be the final shot to destroy the Fed and treasury's Ponzi economic system.

The divergences on the daily charts and the position of the weekly charts combined with the overbought conditions and the euphoric bullishness is the perfect storm. The recent earnings misses are a tell I believe. The biggest being the FedEx miss. One has to ask, how did we have a great inventory build and superior internet shopping and FedEx miss? This leaves a massive hole in their economic rebound story that leads me to question the validity of all the BLS data even more than before.

As for counts or position of indexes, they are all over the place. Who is leading? Tough call, but I believe the RUT is possibly as it counts a full 5 ahead of the SPX. Now, ignoring counts (which I strongly encourage - remember I use them, but rely primarily on TA for all calls) they are in a similar position. The financials fell first againfor the third time. how many times can they collapse and recover? This will be the third such instance recently if it recovers. That trend can not continue.

Remember the DRYS trade I gave you two days ago when it was above $6.40. Now trading below $6. the BDI is still falling and DRYS should revert to at least trade near it's index. Keep an eye on that one.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s204970999]&disp=P

SPX 30m This move has been tiny, but it feels massive. I mentioned the 1235 support yesterday and price is stalling there right now. Futures were up till FedEx and are now basically flat. I count a completed 5 off the top and think we should get a corrective of some sort here before further weakness. Right now I am targeting 1220 if not worse. Let's walk this thing down and not get carried away. Remember we have to treat this as the top is possibly in, but are expecting one final leg to the top.The 200ma on this 30m chart is my target (or the 50ma on the 60m). Watch that TRIN here it is getting up where a possible buy signal is coming. That would signal the corrective or the bottom of this move.